prayers for blowouts

The Schnoz Report - Week 7

October 19, 2007 – 11:18 am
Posted by bryan in » NFL, previews

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Each week The Schnoz Report will get you ready for the upcoming slate of games in the NFL, providing angles (both acute and obtuse, but never right) that you won’t get anywhere else.

As always, if you hate sports, especially football, then reading this post will only make you bitter and angry. Why don’t you go read about the latest disturbing thing to come out of new york city: naked chocolate Jesus.

First Thing’s First

What we learned last week:

1. The Patriots could conceivably clinch the AFC East in 4 weeks on November 18th. If they are still undefeated (which is a big “if” with Indy on the schedule) they will be 10-0 with 6 games left. The Jets or Bills would need to be 4-6 at that point to be mathematically alive for the division crown. The Jets would need to win 3 of their next 4 (@CIN, BUF, WAS, PIT) or the Bills would need to win 3 of their next 5 (BAL, @NYJ, CIN, @MIA, NE). Even if they lose at Indy, the Patriots look like they will clinch the division before December starts. Can they keep the intensity up during the last few games of the year? We shall see.

2. Speaking of the Pats, they were who we thought they were (and so were the Cowboys). Dallas played well, and can take a lot from the fact that they hung with the Patriots for 3 quarters. Not sure if the Patriots will cover the 17 points they are favored by in Miami this week (just because everyone is so sure they will), but they should arrive in Indy on November 4th undefeated if they can beat Buffalo and Washington (more on the Redskins in a second).

3. Tampa Bay continues to play great defense and win games. At 4-2, they are tied with Carolina at the top of the NFC South, and are looking more and more like a playoff team each week. Consider this: Tampa Bay has 5 road games left on their schedule, against opponents who are currently a combined 10-17. At this point it’s hard to see them finishing below 10-6, and in a wide open NFC, Jeff Garcia and their defense could propel them far in the playoffs. Imagine if they had drafted Adrian Peterson with the 4th pick in the last draft? (They’re getting 30:1 odds on winning the super bowl right now in Vegas, in case you were wondering.)

4. I keep waiting for the wheels to come off in Baltimore and it keeps not happening. Their games are maddening to watch, they can’t sustain a drive to save their lives, and yet they find ways to win. With San Diego, Kansas City, and Jacksonville all playing well lately, those two wild cards in the AFC are going to be tough to earn. My Top 5 in the AFC right now: NE, IND, PIT, JAX, SD.

5. Other than Pittsburgh (9.4 ppg) and Jacksonville (11.6 ppg), guess which team is giving up the fewest points per game in the league this year? They lead the NFC in fewest points allowed per game this year and they’ve only given up 2 passing touchdowns all year. Answer: the Washington Redskins, who fumbled away a win and a potential 4-1 record last week in Green Bay. If i had to rank the top 5 NFC Teams right now, it would look like this: DAL, TB, NYG, GB, WAS. (Who gets that playoff spot from the NFC West? Seattle, who can’t even beat the Saints at home? Arizona? San Fran?)

Angle(s) of the Week

In the AFC, the Big 3 all need to try and win on the road.

New England has the easiest test by far, even though they historically struggle in Miami.

Denver has lost 2 in a row at home, and could easily be 0-5 right now. Maybe they’ll make a stand for their season against Pittsburgh at home?

Indianapolis at Jacksonville is the game of the week. A Great D versus Peyton and company. Look for this game to turn on Special Teams. (which is another way of saying i have no idea what will happen.)

This has Nothing to Do with Football

All day on Thursday I told folks that Beckett was going to have to be brilliant if the Red Sox wanted to win. I had no idea that he actually would be. Without him, the Sox would have been trailing 5-2 in the middle innings instead of being up 2-1. His domination kept the Sox in the game until they were finally able to break through and add insurance runs.

With the series relocating to Boston, the Indians still have a great chance to advance. Last night aside, the Indians lineup looks much more daunting top to bottom than the Red Sox right now. The Red Sox are like a bad NL lineup, with Crisp and Lugo sucking the life out of any rally like a pair of black holes. There’s HUGE pressure on Francona to start Ellsbury in CF over Crisp on saturday night, and I think he has to. Crisp’s body language last night when he failed to get a bunt down and then struck out told the story.

Fantasy is the New Reality

My Fantasy teams are so bad right now that they have revoked my license to hand out advice.

Instead, let me give you some thought on naming your fantasy team, which you can use if you’re getting involved in fantasy basketball this month.

(this is from the book I’m working on right now, so it’s my sneaky way of trying to whet your appetite for it. ain’t i clever?)

• DO feel free to use alliterations whenever possible. Not only do they look good, but also they make for great nicknames. For example, “The Amish Are Angry” is a great name because it is visually appealing and you have the option of referring to your team as ‘The Triple-A’ if you like. (Plus, major bonus points any time you can incorporate the Amish into your name.)

• DON’T use your team name to make derogatory references to your spouse or pastor. “Nagging Wife For Sale” or “Shut Up, Pastor Jim” will only get you into trouble in the long run.

• DO use your team name to make childish references to bodily functions and noises. You’ll get your opponents chuckling, which will distract them from the fact that you are about to pummel them. You can’t go wrong with names like “Fart Like You Mean It”, “Will Belch for Touchdowns”, or “The Ferret Broke Wind”.

• DON’T use the name of your favorite professional team in your fantasy team’s moniker. Names like “Steelers Power”, “Mets Rule”, and “Giants4Life” make you sound like a 14-yr-old girl fawning over her pimple-faced boyfriend.

• DO feel free to incorporate pop culture references whenever you can. Incorporating characters or dialogue from recent television shows or movies is a great way to get a laugh and show you’re still on the ball. Personally, I don’t think you can ever go wrong with a Seinfeld reference. In the past few years I’ve gone that route more than once fielding teams names like “The Marine Biologists”, “I Was in the Pool!”, and “The Pretend Architects”.

• DON’T try to convert people to Christianity with your team name. While I’d never say that God is incapable of using a fantasy team name to change someone’s heart, I’m pretty sure that there are better ways God can use you to get a hold of someone’s life. If you’re thinking of naming your team “No Christ, No Heaven” or “Only Goalies and Jesus Save”, please reconsider.

No Ticket, No Problem

If your wife thinks the Sunday Ticket is what you use to get an ice cream at Friendly’s, here’s what you’ll be watching on sunday.

CBS - CBS is only broadcasting 1 game this week. If you live near NE@MIA, TEN@HOU, or BAL@BUF you’ll be seeing it in the early slot. KC@OAK and NYJ@CIN will be shown at 4pm EST.

FOX - FOX has the doubleheader this week. Most folks will get SF@NYG in the early spot and MIN@DAL late. Also of note, as of right now the ATL@NO game will not be in HD.

If you’d like to take a peak at the NFL coverage map with your own corneas, be my guest.

Household Chore to Ignore

Each week I’ll be helping you find something around the house that you should feel guilty about not doing because you’re watching football.

This week it’s time to think about those things that should be dealt with a few times a year. Should you change the batteries in your smoke detector? Should you clean out the filter on your HVAC unit? Should you flip your mattress over? Should you check the chimney? Should you stock up on ice melt? Should you refill the chip bowl and get back on the couch?

Answers: No, No, No, No, No, and Yes.

Upset Specials

Each week I’ll pick an underdog that i think can win its game outright.

Last Week’s pick: WAS over GB (LOSS! thanks to a stupid late turnover by washington)
Record for the Year: 4-2

This week I’m picking Tampa Bay to beat the Lions in Detroit. If you’ve read this far you know that i like how their defense is playing, and Jeff Garcia is doing what he knows how to do: win games.

Mascot Wars

The best mascot matchup of the week:

Titans @ Texans - Everything is bigger in Texas huh? Well your biggest warriors are still not as big as titans. According to Wikipedia, Titans are huge beasts of men capable of eating chainsaws and popping beehives in their mouths like mentos. (well, not really, but i could go add that to the Wiki page right now if it made you feel better). If the Titans were driving around Texas, i might not pick them to win. Driving around Texas can get really boring. But since they are playing football, I like the beehive eaters to defeat the texas residents, 21-10.

Conspiracy Theory of the Week

I’m sick and tired of bands announcing to the world that “we feel like this is the best record we’ve ever made”.

Just once I want to hear a band come out and say “You know, we’re actually disappointed in how this thing came out. It’s nowhere near our best stuff. We still hope you buy it, but don’t expect it to be better than the last album. That last album was great.”

Every album that every band puts out is apparently their “best record yet”. I realize why this happens, but it’s getting old and tired.

Or maybe I’m just getting old and tired. Let’s move on.

If Betting were Legal

Last Week: 8-5

Year to Date: 45-44

My picks for Week 7 (your spreads may vary):

ATL(+7.5), BUF(+3.5), TB(+2.5), WAS(-7.5), HOU(+2.5), NYG(-8.5), MIA(+16.5), KC(+3.5), CIN(-6.5), STL(+8.5), MIN(+9.5), CHI(+5.5), PIT(-3.5), and IND(-3.5)

Final Word

4 things:

1. If it’s been a while since you’ve changed the batteries in your smoke detector, you should probably get on that.

2. ALCS Prediction - Cleveland beats Boston. I just have a bad feeling about this. I think both of these games could be 7-4, 8-6 type games and i think the Red Sox might end up on the wrong side of the score because of their shaky middle relief. Man, i hope I’m wrong.

3. My hot water heater stopped working on wednesday. We had it fixed wednesday night and it stopped working again last night. Talk about something you take for granted until it’s gone. This morning’s cleaning was painful. May the fix be easy, cheap, and completed by dinner time.

4. Ever since my birthday a few weeks ago, my 4-yr old son Parker is obsessed with my age. It’s pretty cute. Every time he sees a player with the #31 on his back , he reminds me that I’m 31 years old. Yesterday I came home and he handed me a card he made for me (with my wife’s help) that said “I love you Daddy. You used to be 30. Now you’re 31. Love Parker”. I’ll keep that one for a long time.

Have a great weekend!

-The Schnoz

Tags: Football, Schnoz Report