prayers for blowouts

The Schnoz Report - Week 11

November 16, 2007 – 9:09 am
Posted by bryan in » NFL, previews

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Each week The Schnoz Report will get you ready for the upcoming slate of games in the NFL, providing angles (both acute and obtuse, but never right) that you won’t get anywhere else.

As always, if you hate sports, especially football, then reading this post will only make you bitter and angry. Why don’t you go read about the donut-eating orange ball of fur loose in the northern Florida woods.

First Thing’s First

What did we learn from Week 10 in the NFL:

+ How’s that “parity” thing working out in the NFL this year? Now that all teams have played 9 games, guess how many of the 32 NFL teams have either a 5-4 or a 4-5 record? The answer: 15 of the 32. Parity is alive and well, my friends.

+ Am I the only one getting a little tired of Brett Favre’s “I’m still not sure if we’re a good team” speech that he gives at every press conference following another Packers’ win? Dude, you’re 8-1. In the NFL, where a team is ONLY as good as it’s record, it means you are a good team.

+ Just taking a look at win/loss records and points for and against, the following 3 teams are almost identical in their suckiness: the Chiefs, the Falcons, and the Ravens. All 3 have losing records and all 3 are scoring about 14 points a game and giving up about 21. I suppose you could blame this on the coaches. You could also blame it on the QBs as well. Huard, Harrington, and McNair haven’t exactly been setting the world on fire. Whoever you blame, when these 3 teams miss the playoffs, their fans won’t even know as they’ll be sleeping through another crappy offensive performance.

+ The funny thing about that Indianapolis loss on Sunday night is that if Vinatieri hits that 29-yard field goal, everyone is talking this week about how gritty the Colts are and how Peyton can throw 6 picks and still lead his team to a win (like they did with Romo after that Monday Nighter in Buffalo), and how good teams win even when they don’t play well.

But…Adam V pushes the kick to the right and now people are starting to wonder if Indy will be able to hold on to that #2 spot in the AFC. With official word that Dwight Freeney is out for the year, and with Marvin Harrison’s knee problems not going away, the Colts might lose that #2 seed to Pittsburgh and might have to beat the Browns at home, the Steelers on the road, and the Patriots in New England just to get back to the Super Bowl this year. The chances for a repeat look awfully bleak right now. Not impossible, just bleak. (”bleak” is a fun word, isn’t it?)

+ My buddy Jake wants me to talk about the Broncos, so let’s talk about them. Outside of the 2 touchdowns they scored in 9 seconds on Sunday, they looked rather pedestrian in their 27-11 win against the Chiefs. Behind Jay Cutler, Selvyn Young, and Brandon Marshall, their offense shows flashes at times, but their defense needs to step up if they hope to play in January. (Only the Jets give up more rushing yards per game than the Broncos.) With that said, they find themselves only 1 game out of the craptacular AFC West with a legitimate chance of finishing 9-7, thanks to some weak teams left on their schedule. Will they make the AFC playoffs? I’ll get to that in a minute…

+ People are just now starting to talk about the fact that The Patriots are looking at a Top 5 pick in next year’s draft. Though they’ll lose their own pick because of the video camera nonsense, they have the 49ers 1st pick thanks to a trade last year. If the season ended today, they’d pick no worse than 5th.

Assuming the Niners look as inept for the rest of the season as they did on Monday night, and assuming Oakland and St. Louis end up with a better record than San Fran, the Patriots could be looking at the 2nd or 3rd pick in the draft come April. Remember, this Niners team stole wins in Weeks 1 and 2 and that’s it. They haven’t won since September 16th.

Second Thing’s Second

Here’s the games i like the most this week:

The Giants @ the Lions - It’s a battle of the two teams most likely to win the NFC wild cards at this point. Both are 6-3 and both are coming off tough losses. I’d try to make a case that there’s a lot to gain from finishing 5th in the NFC instead of 6th, but I really don’t think there is. Either way, you’ll be on the road in the Wild Card round facing the Seahawks, Saints, Cardinals, or Bucs. Maybe the Seahawks stand out in that crowd because of their raucous crowd, but they are a very beatable team.

The Chargers @ the Jaguars - This very well could end up being a first round Wild Card matchup in the playoffs (only it will happen in San Diego). Does anyone know what to expect in this game? Both of these teams have looked great and have looked awful this year. If I told you on Monday morning that the final score of this game was 34-10, would you be able to tell me with confidence who won? Probably not. Everyone keeps saying that the Jags desperately need David Garrard back, but Quinn Gray has beaten the Bucs and the Titans in 3 starts. He can’t be that bad can he…hold on while i look up his stats in those 2 wins…yeah he can be that bad. As for the Chargers, if Vinatieri makes that kick on sunday night, we’re talking about another blown lead for them like the one they blew in the playoffs last year. Instead we’re talking about them as the favorites to win the AFC West.

The Patriots @ the Bills - NBC used their flex-scheduling muscles for the first time this year and pulled this game away from CBS and into the prime time slot on Sunday night. I’ve been talking about this Bills team for weeks now. I think they are a very good team that believes in each other and takes the field each week thinking they can win. With that being said, I think they are in for a long night against a Patriots team coming off a bye. Especially considering that Marshawn Lynch will probably not be in uniform. Oh and there’s the also the fresh chip that Don Shula placed on the Patriots’ shoulders last week when he compared SpyGate to Barry Bonds using steroids. How dumb was that? I’m guessing he got calls that night from half of his ‘72 team telling him to shut his mouth.

This has Nothing to Do with Football

5 snacks that I can’t get enough of:

1. Cheez-Its
2. Little Debbie Oatmeal Creme Pies
3. Kettle Corn popcorn
4. Roasted Garlic Triscuits with Sharp White Cheddar Cheese cuts
5. Kiwis

Fantasy is the New Reality

I’m in 4 fantasy leagues, but i only paid to join one of them ($20). Of course, that’s the league that i am already out of contention in. I needed the Seahawks defense to pitch a shutout and pick off 3 passes to get me a win and while they did hold the Niners to zilch, they ended up about 3 interceptions short. So much for that league.

In my Yahoo! league I’m in second place, in the Burnside Writers league I’m riding Brett Favre’s old man stubble back up the standings. In my fourth league, I don’t even know what’s going on. Hey Malcolm Gladwell, I think 3 fantasy leagues might be my tipping point.

How about you? Are you in contention? Feeling good about your chances to win it all? Suicidal because you’re in last place? Fill us in in the comments section.

No Ticket, No Problem

If the Sunday Ticket is but a mere dream to you, here’s the maps of what you’ll be watching on Sunday:

CBS Coverage, FOX Early Games, FOX Late Games

Playoff Outlook

We’re retiring the Househole Chore to Ignore segment because we’ve ignored every chore we could think of and we like living under a peaceful roof…instead leat’s look ahead to the playoffs.

NFC playoff outlook

For the third week in a row, my NFC playoff outlook stays the same. I said last week that the Redskins and Panthers would be on the outside looking in, and the fact that both teams lost at home this week made me think I was really smart.

1. Dallas, 2. Green Bay, 3. New Orleans, 4. Seattle, 5. New York, 6. Detroit

AFC playoff outlook

In the AFC, I still think the Cleveland Browns are in the playoff picture, and I’m replacing the Titans with the Jaguars based on their win last week. Am i going to move Pittsburgh into the second spot in the AFC ahead of the Colts? Not yet.

1. New England, 2. Indy, 3. Pittsburgh, 4. San Diego, 5. Jacksonville, 6. Cleveland

Upset Specials

Each week I’ll pick an underdog that i think can win its game outright.

Last Week’s pick: CIN over BAL (WIN!)

Record for the Year: 6-4

This week I like The Chargers to upset the Jaguars. Not much of a stretch, I know, but Garrard is back for the Jaguars this week, so the Chargers D will have to step it up.

The 2008 Draft

I’m ditching the mascot matchup feature, as i’ve got about as much juice out of that orange as i possibly could.

Here’s what I’m predicting for the first ten picks of the 2008 draft. I’m guessing not only the draft order, but also who the teams are going to pick. The chances of even one of these predictions being right is thinner than that blond chick on Survivor right now that disappears when she turns sideways, but it’s still fun to try.

1. Miami - Jake Long, OT, Michigan
2. NY Jets - Glenn Dorsey, DE, LSU
3. New England (from SF) - Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
4. Oakland - Chris Long, DE, Virginia
5. Atlanta - Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
6. Chicago - Matt Ryan, QB, B.C.
7. Minnesota - Andre Woodson, QB, Kentucky
8. Houston - Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
9. Carolina - Sam Baker, OT, USC
10. Baltimore - Limas Sweed, WR, Texas

Conspiracy Theory of the Week

Has there ever been 1 person who bought a car based on a car commercial?

Let’s be real here. No one pays attention to car commercials. 80% of the population are content with their car situations, and don’t want to be bothered. The other 20% are either out shopping for cars or are too lazy to care.

The problem, of course, is that cars are not an impulse buy. Either you need one, or you dont. And if you need one, chances are you already know which one you want. The whole car shopping thing has almost nothing to do with the commercials.

Here’s the one car commercial that might actually make me think about buying a car: “This is the last Toyota commercial you will ever see. From now on we will be completely eliminating our TV advertising campaign. In doing so, we will be saving roughly $50 million dollars this year. These savings will be passed on to you the consumer as we will be handing out a 50 dollar bill to each car buyer when they get the keys to their new car. So if you like car commercials, go buy a Ford, but if you want 50 bucks and more beer commercials, buy Toyota.”

Now that might actually work. But will it ever happen? Of course not. That’s why it’s a conspiracy.

If Betting were Legal

Last Week: 7-7

Year to Date: 73-71

I went up against my son last week, and he went 8-6 straight up, beating me by one game, that little punk. I’ll bring him back to pick winners at least one more time before the year is done.

First, here’s my picks for Week 11 (your spreads may vary):

NO(+1.5), ARI(+3.5), CLE(-3.5), IND(-14.5), MIN(-5.5), MIA(+10.5), CAR(+10.5), DET(+3.5), SD(+3.5), TB(-3.5), PIT(-9.5), SEA(-6.5), STL(-3.5), WAS(+10.5), NE(-15.5), DEN(-2.5)

Final Word

With next week’s Thanksgiving games on thursday, an abbreviated version of The Schnoz Report will be coming your way on Wednesday…enjoy the games this weekend.

-The Schnoz

Tags: Football, Schnoz Report