PFB : Prayers for Blowouts | The Schnoz Report: Week 16

The Schnoz Report: Week 16 1

Posted on Fri Dec 19th, 2008 - 09:56 am

Only two weeks left of the Schnoz Report, and the amazing thing is, I’m still going! I started this feature last year and gave up somewhere in early Fall. This year, I’m riding it out until the bitter end. So here we go!

PLAYOFF ODDS

Football Outsiders has an interesting page up right now with current playoff odds. Their odds are based on their DVOA ranking system, which stands for Drugged Vampires Ogle Animals. Actually, I don’t know what it stands for, and you don’t care, so it’s all good.

Here’s a sample of what their model is predicting (though these numbers have not been updated after Indy’s win last night)

+ The Jets (59.4%) and the Dolphins (32.1%) have a better shot at making the playoffs than the Patriots (29.9%)

+ Despite needing more outside help than the Cowboys, the Eagles (33.3%) have a higher probability of making the playoffs than America’s Team (32.7%)

+ From what I can tell, their most probable AFC and NFC playoff pictures look like this:

AFC: 1. TEN, 2. PIT, 3. NYJ, 4. DEN, 5. IND, 6. BAL

NFC: 1. NYG, 2. CAR, 3. MIN, 4. ARI, 5. TB, 6. ATL

Let’s sneak a peak at those potential first round matchups…

Indianapolis @ Denver – Absolute Worst Case for Broncos fans. Even though it was 5 years ago, they still remember the 49-24 playoff beat down in Indy, if only because the year before they suffered a similar beat down, 41-10. The Colts would probably come into Denver favored in this one by 3.5 points, an honestly, that might be the only chance the Broncos would have: playing the “we are underdogs in a home playoff game” disrespect card.

Baltimore @ NY Jets – Fascinating matchup here. Joe Flacco on the road in New York for his playoff debut. Brett Favre in his Jets playoff debut against the playmaking Raven Defense. This has all the makings of a last-minute 20-17 finish.

Tampa Bay @ Arizona – If it plays out this way, Kurt Warner should lead the Cardinals in a rousing rendition of Shout to the Lord. Of all the potential playoff teams they could face (Cowboys, Eagles, Falcons, Bucs), the Buccaneers have the least momentum heading into the final stretch. Their defense, which was their trump card all season, has been beaten up in two consecutive games to the tune of 474 rushing yards. Their offense has looked anemic with Jeff Garcia on the sideline like he was last week. I still think the Bucs have what it takes to make a run in January, but this might be the Cardinals best chance of giving their home fans a playoff win.

Atlanta @ Minnesota – These teams play in Minnesota on Sunday, so we could be watching a playoff preview. This game would be a rematch of the NFC Championship game from 10 years ago in which the 11-point underdog Falcons beat the 15-1 Vikings in overtime. All I remember about that game is the feeling that the Falcons robbed me of a great Vikings-Broncos matchup. Would be great to see which marquis player starts building a great playoff legacy by winning their first playoff game: Matt Ryan or Adrian Peterson.

Let’s Check In On Our Things that could happen in the playoffs

I mentioned these possibilities 2 weeks ago, let’s see if they’re still in play.

1. Tampa Bay Might Host The Super Bowl. This one is looking bleak. But…if Jeff Garcia can get healthy and if their defense can get it back together and if Venus and Jupiter stay visible in the Western Sky, they’re might be a chance.

2. All 2nd Round Playoff Games Could Be Intra-Division Matchups. Now that Indy is locked in as the #5 seed, this would only happen if Baltimore gets the #6 seed and Pittsburgh beats Tennessee for the #1 seed. Still possible in the NFC as well, though it would take Dallas or Philly getting in.

3. All 4 Wild Card Teams could win on the road in the first round of the playoffs. Based on the match-ups in the previous section, you’ve got to admit there’s a decent chance of this happening.

4. Both #1 seeds could lose their first playoff game. Both the Titans and the Giants have looked flawed of late. If they wind up as your top seeds, anything is possible.

Random Thought From This Week’s Games

Weather should be a factor in at least 6 of the games this weekend. Forecasters are calling for rain or snow in Cleveland, New England, Seattle, New York, and Washington. And the temperature in Chicago on Monday Night might hit 10 degrees if the players are lucky.

The Schnoz loves him some snowy football in HD!!!

Bible Character Who Should Have been a Football Player

This week’s BCWSHBAFP is Zachariah. Remember Zachariah? When an angel told him that his barren wife, Elizabeth would conceive a baby, he wasn’t buying it. As a result, he couldn’t hear or see anything until the child was born.

I want Zachariah to line up at Wide Receiver for my All-Bible team. Why? Because like you, I am so tired of wide receivers running their mouths and causing drama. If only an angel could hit the mute button on T.O. and remove his voice box until he wins a championship…now that would be glad tidings of comfort and joy for the holiday season.

Son of The Schnoz Picked Last Week’s Games

Last week the Schnoz had his son Parker pick winners for the Week 15 games. Here’s how that went down.

Son of The Schnoz from Bryan Allain on Vimeo.