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This piece is almost 6 months old, but hey, it’s new to me: The Huffington Post’s Tom McNichol on God and Baseball.

“Isn’t the God that helps a player hit a mammoth home run the same God that helps him strike out the next time up on three nasty sliders? Why aren’t there any baseball players who point to the sky after they whiff on three pitches, or pop out to the mound, or ground into a rally-killing double play? How about pointing after a successful sacrifice? Surely, God has a special place in His heart for the sacrifice.”

Why is it that we like to make predictions for an upcoming sports season?

To sound smart? To say “told you so” if our guesses turn out to be right? To convince ourselves that our team has what it takes? To me, making predictions is about hope. Not necessarily about the hope of an individual team, just the hope of a new season.

In my opinion, each new sports season is great because it’s like getting your hands on the newest book in your favorite series of books. Major League Baseball has been around for a while, so this year’s book has got to be Volume 158 or something like that. (I’ll let my editor do the research)

(editor’s note: I have no editor)

Those of us who are baseball fans all read the last book that came out in the series called “The 2007 MLB Season”. It was a great book. There were good guys, bad guys, plot twists, historic moments, mysterious events that changed the course of the book (remember those flying midges on Joba Chamberlain’s neck in Cleveland?), and of course, a big finish.

Not everyone loved the way the last book ended of course, but that’s the beauty of a new season. There will be new characters introduced to go along with the ones we love and love to hate (world, meet Evan Longoria), there will be pages of comedy, tragedy, and plenty of moments that inspire (like on Page 1 of this year’s book when Ryan Zimmerman hit a game winning homer in the Nationals brand new park). Inevitably there will be plot twists we never saw coming and ultimately there will be a big ending that maybe, just maybe, will be the one you are hoping for.

With that in mind, I give my predictions for how this book, “The 2008 MLB Season”, will play out. While I’m not a baseball expert, the reality is I’m not much different than Peter Gammons, Jayson Stark, Buster Olney, or Atreyu. They don’t know how this book will end any more than I do. And even though they know the previous books in the series a lot better than I do - seeing as how it’s what they do for a living - in the end we’re all just guessing.

OK, enough with the overworked analogies and Neverending Story pics…here’s how I think this will play out

13 Predictions for 2008

1. The Yankees will win the AL East - do I really think this is going to happen? I don’t know. I’m torn between the Sox and the Yankees. While I’m not sold on Girardi as the right manager for this team, I do think the pinstripers are going to have another monster season at the plate. Cano might win the batting title, Giambi is in a contract year, Matsui and Jeter will be as solid as ever, and A-Rod will probably put up MVP numbers again. Most folks think it will come down to their young arms, and I tend to agree. So I guess what I’m saying is that Joba, Phil, and Ian might all be the real deal.

2. The Mets will win the NL East - Without Santana I’d be picking the Phillies or Braves here, but Johan will be strong in September when they need him most.

3. The Diamondbacks and Angels win the Wests - I see the Rockies regressing, and I don’t see the Mariners living up to the hype. If the Big Unit (worst.nickname.ever.) can get healthy and give the D-Backs 12-15 quality starts, he’ll be a great compliment to Haren and Webb. Over in Seattle, I’m with the chorus of experts who think the M’s won’t score enough runs to keep pace with the Angels.

4. Ryan Howard will lead the NL in homers this year - rounding out the top 5 will be Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn, Alfonso Soriano, and Matt Holliday. In the AL it will be A-Rod, Manny, Carlos Pena, Miguel Cabrera. and Big Papi who make up the top 5.

5. The Cubs will win the NL Central - and it has nothing to do with the 100-year anniversary thing. I’d consider picking the Reds as a sleeper over the Brewers to keep it close, but my buddy Geof would probably kill me. This is the one pick that most experts seem to agree on, which is probably bad news for the Cubs.

6. The Houston Astros will finish in the bottom 3 of their division - I only add this to the list because Cliff Young and Jeff Miller of Caedmon’s Call were adamant with me last month that the Astros had a shot at winning their division. I think they’ve been smoking some of their 40 Acres.

7 - The worst record in baseball will belong to the Orioles - Not only are they bad, but the rest of the division is great. I’m not as high on the Blue Jays as many are, but I’m predicting the Orioles will fare no better than a 6-13 record against any of their division foes this year.

8. The Tigers will not win their division - But they will win the AL Wild Card. Their lineup is great, and so is Verlander. But Bonderman, Willis, Rogers, and Robertson? I’m not ready to write them in for 100 wins yet. I’m going with the Indians in the AL Central, but I think it’ going to be close. These two teams might finish 1-2 record-wise in the AL.

9. The Cy Young awards will go to Santana and Halladay - I like Roy and Johan to win 21 games each and walk away with some hardware. I was tempted to pick Kazmir in the AL, but his recent elbow issues scared me off.

10. The final playoff spots will be won by the Phillies and Tigers - the fightins’ will hold off the Dodgers and Braves for the Wild Card, and the Tigers will eliminate the Red Sox in the last week of the season.

11. The Yankees and Indians will meet in the ALCS - The Yankees will out-hit the Tigers and the Indians will out-everything the Angels to meet in the ALCS. Without the midges, I think the Yankees will come out on top.

12. The Diamondbacks and Cubs will face off in the NLCS - Unless the Mets can figure out how to clone Johan this summer, they will fall to the D-Backs in 6 games. Same goes for the Phillies, who will wish they had a few more Cole Hamels when they lose to the Cubs. I like the Cubs to take care of business in the NLCS, not because I think they have a better club than the D-Backs, but because I have no desire to see a Yankees-Diamondbacks matchup in the World Series.

13. The Yankees will beat the Cubs in the World Series - If you think this whole thing was me trying to jinx the Yankees, you’re crazy. (not that I would complain if that happened). I just think Jeter, Posada, and company have one more title run in them before they start to fade into Bolivian. I hope I’m wrong. Wicked wrong.

OK, one more creepy Neverending Story pic.

Falcor says, “Enjoy Opening Day, everyone!”

(I originally posted this piece on my personal blog)

In a Good Friday NYT piece, Murray Chass asks if the reason that baseball organizations have faith nights is just to make money…or is it an evangelism tool…(or is it to make money to buy tools for evangelists)?

Over at Moderately Cerebral Bias, MCBias asks what exactly was Murray’s point, and why does he contradict himself in his own article?

A bunch of the Chicago Cubs players totalled their strength coach’s car the other day. Acutally, it was his wife’s car. And yes, they destroyed it.

Why such an act of destruction? Because earlier that day they had bought him a brand new Nissan XTerra.

(h/t: The Junky Car Club - where Jason Boyett discusses the honor of such generosity and the horror or ruining a perfectly good car.)

On his blog All Growns Up, reader Aaron Lewis convened a few baseball experts (and by “experts”, I mean “not really experts”) to share some thoughts on the upcoming MLB Season. Here were my answers:

1) Who is your favorite team?

The Red Sox (i was born and raised in Massachusetts)

2) What is your prediction for your team’s record and how far will they advance in the playoffs (if they make it)?

I’ll say 93-69, and first place in the AL East. I think they can repeat as champs, so I’ll predict that they will. I’ll also say that if they fail to make the World Series it will be at the hands of the Indians.

3) Give me one player to watch from your team and one player to watch from the league at-large.

Clay Buchholz - With Schilling on the shelf, Clay looks like the man for that 5th spot in the rotation. He is projected to be a #1 starter someday, and with a MLB no-hitter already under his belt, it will be interesting to see if he can live up to some of that hype at the age of 23.

Joba Chamberlain - Even if he is as dominant as a starter as he was as a reliever, will the Yankees blow enough late leads to consider this a mistake? The Joba/Rivera combo kept the Yankees from crumbling last year, and one has to wonder if it will be their demise in a loaded American League.

4) In any order, name three players you would consider for the number one overall fantasy draft pick.

Hanley Ramirez, A-Rod, Jose Reyes

5) Who are your three favorite baseball writers?

Peter Gammons - because he ALWAYS has the most information.
Buster Olney - because his blog on the four-letter is an amazing resource
Sean McAdam - Providence Journal writer who covers the Red Sox and contributes to ESPN.com

6) Would you like the leagues to establish the same rule with regard to the DH? Which way, pitcher batting or DH?

I’m biased because I follow an American League team, but I like the DH and think both leagues should adopt it. Would football be better or worse if the Kicker had to play QB every tenth drive? Sure, there might be more strategy involved if that was the case, but it would not make for a better product.

7) Describe Scott Boras, A-Rod, and Joe Morgan in one word or term.

Scott Boras - boring
A-Rod - too intense
Joe Morgan - Muteworthy

8] What non-favorite team do you like to watch play?

Yankees, because i enjoy their losses almost as much as Red Sox wins.

9) On-going PED investigations - important or ready to move forward?

PED investigations should only stop when the game is cleaned up…which it’s not. I just wish it would focus more on the present/future than on the past. Trying to pretend PEDs are a past problem will put us in the same position 15 years from now.

10) Who is best and worst GM in the game?

While I love Theo Epstein, he does have the 2nd highest payroll to work with. I think Billy Beane is among the best, for the way he keeps the A’s competitive every year. Mark Shapiro seems to know what he’s doing in Cleveland as well. As far as the worst, I’ll say Ed Wade of the Astros based on the things he did with the Phillies over the last decade and the questionable moves he’s already made in Houston.

You can read everyone’s responses here.

If you want to share your answers to some or all of these questions, fire away in the comments.

I watched a bit of the drama online yesterday, but honestly, I could only take about 45 minutes of it.

I did follow along on a few of the blogs while it was happening, and I caught the highlights later in the day like many of you did.

Some random thoughts from it all…

+ The congressmen who were attacking McNamee seemed way out of line to me. Congressman Burton seemed intent on shaming McNamee, not at getting at the truth. The way he called Clemens a “baseball titan” almost made me gag. Same can be said for Congressman Shays, who was basically namecalling and browbeating McNamee. I have no interest in defending McNamee, but it seemed clear that those bozos had an agenda, and that it was all about making McNamee look bad. Apparently Henry Waxman agreed with me, going so far as to apologize to McNamee at the conclusion of the hearings for it.

+  For the most part, Clemens was stumbling over his answers like a blindfolded parent walking through a messy toy room. It was hard to watch.  I felt that McNamee was much more believable than Clemens, and all of the media outlets I have listened to in the past 12 hours have confirmed that I’m not alone. This morning on Mike and Mike, Bob Costas said that he already believed McNamee more than Clemens, and that for him yesterday’s events “moved the needle” away from Clemens even more. (no pun intended on the use of the word ‘needle’.)

+ Pettitte’s testimony was the star yesterday, and as was reported earlier, it was not good for Roger. Pettitte will be taking some hits over the next few days and weeks as well, however, as he is now admitting that he lied to the Mitchell Report about the extent of his HGH use. He now says he took some again in 2004, HGH that was given to him by his dad. Media folk are already using this to play the “hypocrite card” because of his faith, and there’s really nothing he can do except take his lumps, ask for forgiveness, and try to learn from this.

+ Seems to me that a lot of people told half-truths to the Mitchell Report. Both Pettitte and McNamee have now admitted under oath that they did not tell all of the truth because they were trying to protect people. McNamee hid the physical evidence he had so as not to embarrass Clemens, and Pettitte protected his dad by not mentioning the 2004 incident. Both men, however, were not comfortable lying to Congress and risking perjury, so they told all. (or did they?)

+ I liked a quote I heard this morning that was attributed to McNamee’s lawyers. When he asked them how he had done, they told him he did good because “he gave answers, not speeches”.

+ I bet the nanny thing is going to hurt Clemens as more and more info comes out. McNamee remembered the color of her bathing suit at the party (creepy much?)…if he was so sure about that, could he really be mistaken about Clemens being there? He even recalled conversations they had about the party. Why would he lie about trivial details like that? I just don’t see it.

(last one, i promise)

+ Clemens has prided himself on his work ethic and discipline in maintaining his shape and fitness. Steroids or not, it is clear that he has put in a lot of work, and it is very commendable. But if I could say one thing to him right now, it would be this: “Keeping us with these lies for the rest of your life is going to be harder than any workout program you have ever done. The thing about the truth is, it does not require much effort to maintain. That’s actually the great thing about the truth; it does the work for you. But these lies, they will take work, and they will drain you emotionally, physically, and spiritually every day of your life. Always remember, it is never too late to let them go and embrace the truth.”

Oh one more thing, I’ve never been more ready for baseball to start.

Pitchers and catchers report today! Woot!

So there’s this thing going down today in Washington D.C., and if all you listen to is sports talk radio, you would think this is a huge deal…the story of the year, perhaps. Well, thankfully it’s not, despite how much the talking heads (cough*Mike & Mike*cough) have been talking about it.

You all know the story by now, so there’s no need to retell it. Bottom line is this: Despite some evidence that says otherwise, Roger Clemens is sticking with his story that he never used HGH or steroids.

The interesting angle here, in my opinion, is the position Andy Pettitte is in. One of his best friends has been accused of doing something unethical and illegal, and under oath he had a choice to make. Tell the truth and dime out his friend, or lie for the sake of his buddy. It was clear from the beginning what stance Pettitte was going to take, because similar claims were made against him in the Mitchell Report, and he admitted they were true days later. If he wasn’t going to lie to save his own skin, he wasn’t going to lie to save someone else’s.

It’s common knowledge that Pettitte is a Christian, and while that doesn’t carry a lot of weight with the media, it does make me wonder. What was Pettitte’s main motivation for telling the truth? Fear of God or fear of perjury? I’m guessing it was an equal mix of both that made the decision an easy one to make. (note that I said easy to make, not easy to follow through with). Pettitte knew he had to be truthful with Congress, even if one of his best friends asked him to lie.

I know there’s a chance that Roger is telling the truth, but personally, I don’t believe him (your mileage opinion may vary). Assuming that he is lying, and that Pettitte is sure of it, what a crappy position for Pettitte to be in. How do you think you’d handle being in Pettitte’s position? Would the threat or perjury make it an easy decision? Could you ever feel okay about lying to cover up a friend’s past transgressions if there was no real victim to the crime?

So let’s sit back and see how things play out. If the evidence shows that Clemens is telling the truth, he gets my sincere apology. If it shows Clemens is lying, well, no surprise there. And if, like I think is going to happen, there is no strong evidence either way, well then this really wasn’t such a big deal after all, was it?

I was listening to the “MLB on XM” over lunch earlier today and i caught one of the quick little promos they’ve been running where they get major leaguers to answer questions like “favorite road restaurant?”, “best minor league story?”, and “which beer can do you like to use to dispose of your steroid needles?”

They asked Carlos Beltran a question about the music he listens to and his reponse was “I like Marc Anthony. And I listen to a lot of Christian music.”

I’ll be honest, despite the fact that Carlos is a Christian, I wasn’t expecting that answer.

So what does Carlos listen to? Connersvine? The Katinas? Newsboys? Caedmon’s Call? Bob Carlisle?

If you’ve got a guess as to what Beltran is spinning on his iPod, do tell.

Though this isn’t the typical fare here at PFB, I had to make mention of the amazing day I had on Saturday while spending the weekend with my folks in Massachusetts. My brother Josh, who manages at The Paradise, got us guest-listed at Theo Epstein’s Fundraising Sports Roundtable, which was being held at Fenway Park. The event itself was amazing, as I got to hear from Epstein, Brian Cashman, Bill James, Scott Boras, and Peter Gammons on the state of Boston sports and baseball.

There were a few highlights for me. First off, I got to shake hands with Peter Gammons, which was an honor. Secondly, I got to meet Theo Epstein, a personal hero of mine, and thank him for doing his job so well. That was fun.

I also donated $25 to Theo’s “Foundation to be Named Later”  in order to be able to pose for this picture, which I was more than happy to do.

Yeah, I’m still smiling.

Though I know none of you were out there with baited breath waiting for my 2 cents on the Mitchell Report, I still feel like I should offer something up. The problem is, I don’t have much of an opinion on it. 86 players cheated in different ways and for different reasons. A few of them were outspoken Christians; namely Andy Pettite, Paul Byrd, and Brian Roberts.

Am i surprised that these Christian men were on the report? Not at all. Most Christians I know have cheated at something before. Maybe it was the foot wedge they used on the golf course, a shortcut they took at work to avoid tedious paperwork, going over the speed limit for a good (or bad) reason, or peering over at somebody else’s cards while playing poker.

Am i saying that cheating is okay because we’ve all done it? Of course not. I’m just saying that I wasn’t surprised. I’m guessing you weren’t either.

Kudos to Byrd, Pettitte, and Roberts for addressing the issue right away instead of waiting. Whatever their reasons for using the stuff they used, whether they were legitimate, illegal, or otherwise, I hope they learned something from it all. I guess I can say that about the whole league, not just about these guys. Sadly, I think the only thing that most players learned was that if you are going to do this stuff, don’t pay with a personal check and leave the clubhouse attendant out of the transaction.
Here’s 3 other things I thought about the Mitchell Report and its subsequent fallout:

1. Personally, I don’t believe Clemens for a second now that he is denying the claims. I just don’t. Does anyone? Why would McNamee lie about injecting Clemens over the course of many years? And now that Pettite has admitted that what McNamee said was true, we can take this question further: Wy would McNamee tell the truth about Pettitte, but lie about Clemens? Makes no sense.

2. I liked Bill Simmons’ point about the Clemens-Piazza bat throwing incident from the 2000 World Series. We never understood why he did that until now: Roid Rage.

3. Considering this document was constructed with only a handful of sources, I gotta believe that there were hundreds more players who tried this stuff at one time or another. Not only that, but it was both pitchers and hitters, stars and scrubs, young and old who were using it. When you think about it in those terms, maybe the steroid numbers (aside from HRs) aren’t nearly as inflated as we thought.

I won’t bore you any more with thoughts on this 409-page borefest (yes, i did skim through most of it). If you want to read some other interesting takes on it, try Tim Ellsworth’s take on things at the BP Press, Jordan Green’s humorous angle over at Burnside, or Bill Simmons’ thoughts in the first few paragraphs of this mailbag piece on ESPN.com.

Hope your holidays were, and continue to be, a smashing success.