If you’re the gambling type, or the “I can’t get enough of the NFL” type, let me direct your attention to Vegas Watch, who just posted the NFL Over/Unders for 2008. Those are the win totals in the first column. (source of over/unders: Sportsbook.com)
Seeing these for the first time begs the question (actually two questions)
1. If forced to put $500 double-or-nothing on your favorite team (ignoring the money lines), would you take the over or under on wins for the season?
2. Do any of these stand out to you as a pretty good bet?
Why is it that we like to make predictions for an upcoming sports season?
To sound smart? To say “told you so” if our guesses turn out to be right? To convince ourselves that our team has what it takes? To me, making predictions is about hope. Not necessarily about the hope of an individual team, just the hope of a new season.
In my opinion, each new sports season is great because it’s like getting your hands on the newest book in your favorite series of books. Major League Baseball has been around for a while, so this year’s book has got to be Volume 158 or something like that. (I’ll let my editor do the research)
(editor’s note: I have no editor)
Those of us who are baseball fans all read the last book that came out in the series called “The 2007 MLB Season”. It was a great book. There were good guys, bad guys, plot twists, historic moments, mysterious events that changed the course of the book (remember those flying midges on Joba Chamberlain’s neck in Cleveland?), and of course, a big finish.
Not everyone loved the way the last book ended of course, but that’s the beauty of a new season. There will be new characters introduced to go along with the ones we love and love to hate (world, meet Evan Longoria), there will be pages of comedy, tragedy, and plenty of moments that inspire (like on Page 1 of this year’s book when Ryan Zimmerman hit a game winning homer in the Nationals brand new park). Inevitably there will be plot twists we never saw coming and ultimately there will be a big ending that maybe, just maybe, will be the one you are hoping for.
With that in mind, I give my predictions for how this book, “The 2008 MLB Season”, will play out. While I’m not a baseball expert, the reality is I’m not much different than Peter Gammons, Jayson Stark, Buster Olney, or Atreyu. They don’t know how this book will end any more than I do. And even though they know the previous books in the series a lot better than I do - seeing as how it’s what they do for a living - in the end we’re all just guessing.
OK, enough with the overworked analogies and Neverending Story pics…here’s how I think this will play out
13 Predictions for 2008
1. The Yankees will win the AL East - do I really think this is going to happen? I don’t know. I’m torn between the Sox and the Yankees. While I’m not sold on Girardi as the right manager for this team, I do think the pinstripers are going to have another monster season at the plate. Cano might win the batting title, Giambi is in a contract year, Matsui and Jeter will be as solid as ever, and A-Rod will probably put up MVP numbers again. Most folks think it will come down to their young arms, and I tend to agree. So I guess what I’m saying is that Joba, Phil, and Ian might all be the real deal.
2. The Mets will win the NL East - Without Santana I’d be picking the Phillies or Braves here, but Johan will be strong in September when they need him most.
3. The Diamondbacks and Angels win the Wests - I see the Rockies regressing, and I don’t see the Mariners living up to the hype. If the Big Unit (worst.nickname.ever.) can get healthy and give the D-Backs 12-15 quality starts, he’ll be a great compliment to Haren and Webb. Over in Seattle, I’m with the chorus of experts who think the M’s won’t score enough runs to keep pace with the Angels.
4. Ryan Howard will lead the NL in homers this year - rounding out the top 5 will be Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn, Alfonso Soriano, and Matt Holliday. In the AL it will be A-Rod, Manny, Carlos Pena, Miguel Cabrera. and Big Papi who make up the top 5.
5. The Cubs will win the NL Central - and it has nothing to do with the 100-year anniversary thing. I’d consider picking the Reds as a sleeper over the Brewers to keep it close, but my buddy Geof would probably kill me. This is the one pick that most experts seem to agree on, which is probably bad news for the Cubs.
6. The Houston Astros will finish in the bottom 3 of their division - I only add this to the list because Cliff Young and Jeff Miller of Caedmon’s Call were adamant with me last month that the Astros had a shot at winning their division. I think they’ve been smoking some of their 40 Acres.
7 - The worst record in baseball will belong to the Orioles - Not only are they bad, but the rest of the division is great. I’m not as high on the Blue Jays as many are, but I’m predicting the Orioles will fare no better than a 6-13 record against any of their division foes this year.
8. The Tigers will not win their division - But they will win the AL Wild Card. Their lineup is great, and so is Verlander. But Bonderman, Willis, Rogers, and Robertson? I’m not ready to write them in for 100 wins yet. I’m going with the Indians in the AL Central, but I think it’ going to be close. These two teams might finish 1-2 record-wise in the AL.
9. The Cy Young awards will go to Santana and Halladay - I like Roy and Johan to win 21 games each and walk away with some hardware. I was tempted to pick Kazmir in the AL, but his recent elbow issues scared me off.
10. The final playoff spots will be won by the Phillies and Tigers - the fightins’ will hold off the Dodgers and Braves for the Wild Card, and the Tigers will eliminate the Red Sox in the last week of the season.
11. The Yankees and Indians will meet in the ALCS - The Yankees will out-hit the Tigers and the Indians will out-everything the Angels to meet in the ALCS. Without the midges, I think the Yankees will come out on top.
12. The Diamondbacks and Cubs will face off in the NLCS - Unless the Mets can figure out how to clone Johan this summer, they will fall to the D-Backs in 6 games. Same goes for the Phillies, who will wish they had a few more Cole Hamels when they lose to the Cubs. I like the Cubs to take care of business in the NLCS, not because I think they have a better club than the D-Backs, but because I have no desire to see a Yankees-Diamondbacks matchup in the World Series.
13. The Yankees will beat the Cubs in the World Series - If you think this whole thing was me trying to jinx the Yankees, you’re crazy. (not that I would complain if that happened). I just think Jeter, Posada, and company have one more title run in them before they start to fade into Bolivian. I hope I’m wrong. Wicked wrong.
On his blog All Growns Up, reader Aaron Lewis convened a few baseball experts (and by “experts”, I mean “not really experts”) to share some thoughts on the upcoming MLB Season. Here were my answers:
1) Who is your favorite team?
The Red Sox (i was born and raised in Massachusetts)
2) What is your prediction for your team’s record and how far will they advance in the playoffs (if they make it)?
I’ll say 93-69, and first place in the AL East. I think they can repeat as champs, so I’ll predict that they will. I’ll also say that if they fail to make the World Series it will be at the hands of the Indians.
3) Give me one player to watch from your team and one player to watch from the league at-large.
Clay Buchholz - With Schilling on the shelf, Clay looks like the man for that 5th spot in the rotation. He is projected to be a #1 starter someday, and with a MLB no-hitter already under his belt, it will be interesting to see if he can live up to some of that hype at the age of 23.
Joba Chamberlain - Even if he is as dominant as a starter as he was as a reliever, will the Yankees blow enough late leads to consider this a mistake? The Joba/Rivera combo kept the Yankees from crumbling last year, and one has to wonder if it will be their demise in a loaded American League.
4) In any order, name three players you would consider for the number one overall fantasy draft pick.
Hanley Ramirez, A-Rod, Jose Reyes
5) Who are your three favorite baseball writers?
Peter Gammons - because he ALWAYS has the most information.
Buster Olney - because his blog on the four-letter is an amazing resource
Sean McAdam - Providence Journal writer who covers the Red Sox and contributes to ESPN.com
6) Would you like the leagues to establish the same rule with regard to the DH? Which way, pitcher batting or DH?
I’m biased because I follow an American League team, but I like the DH and think both leagues should adopt it. Would football be better or worse if the Kicker had to play QB every tenth drive? Sure, there might be more strategy involved if that was the case, but it would not make for a better product.
7) Describe Scott Boras, A-Rod, and Joe Morgan in one word or term.
Scott Boras - boring
A-Rod - too intense
Joe Morgan - Muteworthy
8] What non-favorite team do you like to watch play?
Yankees, because i enjoy their losses almost as much as Red Sox wins.
9) On-going PED investigations - important or ready to move forward?
PED investigations should only stop when the game is cleaned up…which it’s not. I just wish it would focus more on the present/future than on the past. Trying to pretend PEDs are a past problem will put us in the same position 15 years from now.
10) Who is best and worst GM in the game?
While I love Theo Epstein, he does have the 2nd highest payroll to work with. I think Billy Beane is among the best, for the way he keeps the A’s competitive every year. Mark Shapiro seems to know what he’s doing in Cleveland as well. As far as the worst, I’ll say Ed Wade of the Astros based on the things he did with the Phillies over the last decade and the questionable moves he’s already made in Houston.
You can read everyone’s responses here.
If you want to share your answers to some or all of these questions, fire away in the comments.
Each week The Schnoz Report will get you ready for the upcoming slate of games in the NFL, providing angles (both acute and obtuse, but never right) that you won’t get anywhere else.
+ How’s that “parity” thing working out in the NFL this year? Now that all teams have played 9 games, guess how many of the 32 NFL teams have either a 5-4 or a 4-5 record? The answer: 15 of the 32. Parity is alive and well, my friends.
+ Am I the only one getting a little tired of Brett Favre’s “I’m still not sure if we’re a good team” speech that he gives at every press conference following another Packers’ win? Dude, you’re 8-1. In the NFL, where a team is ONLY as good as it’s record, it means you are a good team.
+ Just taking a look at win/loss records and points for and against, the following 3 teams are almost identical in their suckiness: the Chiefs, the Falcons, and the Ravens. All 3 have losing records and all 3 are scoring about 14 points a game and giving up about 21. I suppose you could blame this on the coaches. You could also blame it on the QBs as well. Huard, Harrington, and McNair haven’t exactly been setting the world on fire. Whoever you blame, when these 3 teams miss the playoffs, their fans won’t even know as they’ll be sleeping through another crappy offensive performance.
+ The funny thing about that Indianapolis loss on Sunday night is that if Vinatieri hits that 29-yard field goal, everyone is talking this week about how gritty the Colts are and how Peyton can throw 6 picks and still lead his team to a win (like they did with Romo after that Monday Nighter in Buffalo), and how good teams win even when they don’t play well.
But…Adam V pushes the kick to the right and now people are starting to wonder if Indy will be able to hold on to that #2 spot in the AFC. With official word that Dwight Freeney is out for the year, and with Marvin Harrison’s knee problems not going away, the Colts might lose that #2 seed to Pittsburgh and might have to beat the Browns at home, the Steelers on the road, and the Patriots in New England just to get back to the Super Bowl this year. The chances for a repeat look awfully bleak right now. Not impossible, just bleak. (”bleak” is a fun word, isn’t it?)
+ My buddy Jake wants me to talk about the Broncos, so let’s talk about them. Outside of the 2 touchdowns they scored in 9 seconds on Sunday, they looked rather pedestrian in their 27-11 win against the Chiefs. Behind Jay Cutler, Selvyn Young, and Brandon Marshall, their offense shows flashes at times, but their defense needs to step up if they hope to play in January. (Only the Jets give up more rushing yards per game than the Broncos.) With that said, they find themselves only 1 game out of the craptacular AFC West with a legitimate chance of finishing 9-7, thanks to some weak teams left on their schedule. Will they make the AFC playoffs? I’ll get to that in a minute…
+ People are just now starting to talk about the fact that The Patriots are looking at a Top 5 pick in next year’s draft. Though they’ll lose their own pick because of the video camera nonsense, they have the 49ers 1st pick thanks to a trade last year. If the season ended today, they’d pick no worse than 5th.
Assuming the Niners look as inept for the rest of the season as they did on Monday night, and assuming Oakland and St. Louis end up with a better record than San Fran, the Patriots could be looking at the 2nd or 3rd pick in the draft come April. Remember, this Niners team stole wins in Weeks 1 and 2 and that’s it. They haven’t won since September 16th.
Second Thing’s Second
Here’s the games i like the most this week:
The Giants @ the Lions - It’s a battle of the two teams most likely to win the NFC wild cards at this point. Both are 6-3 and both are coming off tough losses. I’d try to make a case that there’s a lot to gain from finishing 5th in the NFC instead of 6th, but I really don’t think there is. Either way, you’ll be on the road in the Wild Card round facing the Seahawks, Saints, Cardinals, or Bucs. Maybe the Seahawks stand out in that crowd because of their raucous crowd, but they are a very beatable team.
The Chargers @ the Jaguars - This very well could end up being a first round Wild Card matchup in the playoffs (only it will happen in San Diego). Does anyone know what to expect in this game? Both of these teams have looked great and have looked awful this year. If I told you on Monday morning that the final score of this game was 34-10, would you be able to tell me with confidence who won? Probably not. Everyone keeps saying that the Jags desperately need David Garrard back, but Quinn Gray has beaten the Bucs and the Titans in 3 starts. He can’t be that bad can he…hold on while i look up his stats in those 2 wins…yeah he can be that bad. As for the Chargers, if Vinatieri makes that kick on sunday night, we’re talking about another blown lead for them like the one they blew in the playoffs last year. Instead we’re talking about them as the favorites to win the AFC West.
The Patriots @ the Bills - NBC used their flex-scheduling muscles for the first time this year and pulled this game away from CBS and into the prime time slot on Sunday night. I’ve been talking about this Bills team for weeks now. I think they are a very good team that believes in each other and takes the field each week thinking they can win. With that being said, I think they are in for a long night against a Patriots team coming off a bye. Especially considering that Marshawn Lynch will probably not be in uniform. Oh and there’s the also the fresh chip that Don Shula placed on the Patriots’ shoulders last week when he compared SpyGate to Barry Bonds using steroids. How dumb was that? I’m guessing he got calls that night from half of his ‘72 team telling him to shut his mouth.
This has Nothing to Do with Football
5 snacks that I can’t get enough of:
Cheez-Its
Little Debbie Oatmeal Creme Pies
Kettle Corn popcorn
Roasted Garlic Triscuits with Sharp White Cheddar Cheese cuts
Kiwis
Fantasy is the New Reality
I’m in 4 fantasy leagues, but i only paid to join one of them ($20). Of course, that’s the league that i am already out of contention in. I needed the Seahawks defense to pitch a shutout and pick off 3 passes to get me a win and while they did hold the Niners to zilch, they ended up about 3 interceptions short. So much for that league.
In my Yahoo! league I’m in second place, in the Burnside Writers league I’m riding Brett Favre’s old man stubble back up the standings. In my fourth league, I don’t even know what’s going on. Hey Malcolm Gladwell, I think 3 fantasy leagues might be my tipping point.
How about you? Are you in contention? Feeling good about your chances to win it all? Suicidal because you’re in last place? Fill us in in the comments section.
No Ticket, No Problem
If the Sunday Ticket is but a mere dream to you, here’s the maps of what you’ll be watching on Sunday:
We’re retiring the Househole Chore to Ignore segment because we’ve ignored every chore we could think of and we like living under a peaceful roof…instead leat’s look ahead to the playoffs.
NFC playoff outlook
For the third week in a row, my NFC playoff outlook stays the same. I said last week that the Redskins and Panthers would be on the outside looking in, and the fact that both teams lost at home this week made me think I was really smart.
1. Dallas, 2. Green Bay, 3. New Orleans, 4. Seattle, 5. New York, 6. Detroit
AFC playoff outlook
In the AFC, I still think the Cleveland Browns are in the playoff picture, and I’m replacing the Titans with the Jaguars based on their win last week. Am i going to move Pittsburgh into the second spot in the AFC ahead of the Colts? Not yet.
1. New England, 2. Indy, 3. Pittsburgh, 4. San Diego, 5. Jacksonville, 6. Cleveland
Upset Specials
Each week I’ll pick an underdog that i think can win its game outright.
Last Week’s pick: CIN over BAL (WIN!)
Record for the Year: 6-4
This week I like The Chargers to upset the Jaguars. Not much of a stretch, I know, but Garrard is back for the Jaguars this week, so the Chargers D will have to step it up.
The 2008 Draft
I’m ditching the mascot matchup feature, as i’ve got about as much juice out of that orange as i possibly could.
Here’s what I’m predicting for the first ten picks of the 2008 draft. I’m guessing not only the draft order, but also who the teams are going to pick. The chances of even one of these predictions being right is thinner than that blond chick on Survivor right now that disappears when she turns sideways, but it’s still fun to try.
Miami - Jake Long, OT, Michigan
NY Jets - Glenn Dorsey, DE, LSU
New England (from SF) - Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
Oakland - Chris Long, DE, Virginia
Atlanta - Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
Chicago - Matt Ryan, QB, B.C.
Minnesota - Andre Woodson, QB, Kentucky
Houston - Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
Carolina - Sam Baker, OT, USC
Baltimore - Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
Conspiracy Theory of the Week
Has there ever been 1 person who bought a car based on a car commercial?
Let’s be real here. No one pays attention to car commercials. 80% of the population are content with their car situations, and don’t want to be bothered. The other 20% are either out shopping for cars or are too lazy to care.
The problem, of course, is that cars are not an impulse buy. Either you need one, or you dont. And if you need one, chances are you already know which one you want. The whole car shopping thing has almost nothing to do with the commercials.
Here’s the one car commercial that might actually make me think about buying a car: “This is the last Toyota commercial you will ever see. From now on we will be completely eliminating our TV advertising campaign. In doing so, we will be saving roughly $50 million dollars this year. These savings will be passed on to you the consumer as we will be handing out a 50 dollar bill to each car buyer when they get the keys to their new car. So if you like car commercials, go buy a Ford, but if you want 50 bucks and more beer commercials, buy Toyota.”
Now that might actually work. But will it ever happen? Of course not. That’s why it’s a conspiracy.
If Betting were Legal
Last Week: 7-7
Year to Date: 73-71
I went up against my son last week, and he went 8-6 straight up, beating me by one game, that little punk. I’ll bring him back to pick winners at least one more time before the year is done.
First, here’s my picks for Week 11 (your spreads may vary):
With next week’s Thanksgiving games on thursday, an abbreviated version of The Schnoz Report will be coming your way on Wednesday…enjoy the games this weekend.
Each week The Schnoz Report will get you ready for the upcoming slate of games in the NFL, providing angles (both acute and obtuse, but never right) that you won’t get anywhere else.
As always, if you hate sports, especially football, then reading this post will only make you bitter and angry. Why don’t you go read about the cow who fell 200-ft onto a moving minivan.
First Thing’s First
What did we learn from Week 9 in the NFL:
+ Things Adrian Peterson could elude and outrun: a cheetah, a jet, a silent but deadly fart, a swarm of africanized killer bees, Dog the Bounty Hunter, his mom when she is really mad at him, a heat-seeking missile, the flu, rain, acid rain, bullets, gravity, clean Shawne Merriman, roidy Shawne Merriman, taxes, wind, and Jacoby Ellsbury.
+ One more Adrian Peterson note. The best thing i read about him all week was by Big Daddy Drew (sports blogger) in a comment on the FreeDarko blog when he said, “The man runs like Super Mario after swallowing a Starman.”
+ Four weeks ago I said the Saints were officially terrible. Now, I’m saying the Saints are officially back. Two reasons: 1-they just beat up on a good Jacksonville defense. 2-the combined record of the remaining opponents on their schedule: 24-42 (.364)
+ The Ravens are in even worse shape than their Monday night shellacking to the Steelers let you in on. In 5 of their 8 remaining games, they play the Browns, Chargers, Patriots, Colts, and Steelers. Not sure I see them winning any of those.
+ My NFC playoff outlook right now is the same as last week. I still see the Redskins, Bucs, and Panthers on the outside looking in: DAL, GB, NO, SEA, NYG, DET
+ In the AFC, I’m moving the Cleveland Browns into the playoff picture (more on them in a minute) and taking out the Jaguars. the current AFC playoff outlook is: NE, IND, PIT, SD, TEN, CLE.
Angle of the Week
Crazy amount of divisional games this week. 10 of the 14 games are intra-division showdowns, with Oakland at Chicago being the only inter-conference match-up on the slate.
There’s a few teams who can make huge statements with wins on Sunday:
If the New York Giants can beat the Cowboys this week, they’ll be tied for first place in the division. It’s a crucial game because they’ve already lost to Dallas once this year, and because they have a slightly tougher schedule than Dallas from here on out.
The Chargers were starting to make us all believe again until that Purple Blur ran through them for a new world record. A win at home on Sunday Night against Indy and they’ve got a legitimate claim to that 3rd spot in the AFC pecking order along with the Steelers. That being said, i think the 3.5 points that the Colts are giving the Chargers this week is way too low. You’ve got a Colts team hungry to bounce back and a Chargers team who is still living off of last year’s reputation a bit. I might have taken the Colts if the spread had been 7.5, nevermind 3.5.
The Steelers welcome in a feisty Cleveland Browns team this week looking to firmly entrench themselves in the AFC playoff picture. Look at the remaining games the Browns have. After division games against the Steelers and Ravens they play Houston, @Arizona, @Jets, Buffalo, @Cincinnati, San Fran. To think they can go 5-3 over their last 8 games in no stretch at all, putting them at 10-6 and in the playoffs. In fact, this game could be a preview of the first weekend of the playoffs.
This has Nothing to Do with Football
Batteries are pretty amazing, aren’t they? I mean, the whole concept of sticking different metals together and harnessing the resultant electron transfer that occurs into energy that can power machines.
It’s just one more invention that I never could have dreamed up in a million years. We have high definition television, wireless internet, robot vacuums, and I am still amazed by things like batteries, toilets, and telephones.
Fantasy is the New Reality
Last week I questioned whether or not the “Draft 2 running backs in the first 2 rounds” philosophy for fantasy football is going to change based on the numbers we’re seeing this year. Brad Evans of Yahoo! Sports addressed that issue this week, and thinks that people should stick to their guns and keep picking running backs.
It should be noted, however, that he also predicted that Adrian Peterson would not have a good week last week (3 TDs, 296 yds), and suggested that he should be benched for other options, so proceed with caution.
It will be very interesting to see what happens with the top pick in fantasy drafts next year now that Peterson has broken out. If he can keep this torrid pace up, he’ll be a lock for #1 next year, but if he slows down and Tomlinson has another great season, it will lead to a fun debate issue come next summer.
No Ticket, No Problem
If your wife gives you dirty looks whenever you mention the Sunday Ticket, here’s what you’ll be watching on sunday.
CBS - CBS has one game this week. It will be shown at 1pm EST unless you’re getting the CIN@BAL game, which is a late start.
FOX - FOX gets the doubleheader this week. Apparently they only have 6 High-Def production trucks because they have seven games on the docket and those of you watching ATL@CAR at 1pm will be doing so in Standard Def. They have 4 games early that are scattered regionally, and 3 games late. Most folks in the U.S. will be watching DAL@NYG during that late game slot.
If you’d like to take a peak at the NFL coverage maps with your own face, be my guest.
Household Chore to Ignore
Each week I’ll be helping you find something around the house that you should feel guilty about not doing because you’re watching football.
This week let’s talk about that one chair in your living room that gets neglected. Nobody ever sits on it. You kinda feel bad for that chair, don’t you? Did you know that living room furniture has feelings too? It does. So show that chair some love and spend about 10 minutes watching the game from it. You’ll balance out the karma in the room, and then you can go back to your favorite spot, knowing you did something to make things more peaceful on the homefront. And they say you’re not a sensitive guy? Pshaw.
Upset Specials
Each week I’ll pick an underdog that i think can win its game outright.
Last Week’s pick: JAX over NO (LOSS!)
Record for the Year: 5-4
This week I like the Bengals to beat the Ravens. I know how bad this Bengals team is, but the Ravens…I mean…they are just putrid offensively. The Ravens might have more playmakers on defense, but you gotta figure that Carson Palmer is going to have a huge week again at some point, right? Even though Chad Johnson is a little banged up and questionable for the game, I think the Bengals will eek out a 24-23 win in Baltimore.
Mascot Wars
The best mascot matchup of the week:
Steelers @ Browns -Is rust brown or red? It reminds me of this pair of shoes i had a few years ago that i thought were red. For months i was wearing these things thinking that they were red shoes, and it kinda bothered me. Then one day i referred to them as my “red shoes” and Erica was like, “what are you talking about? Those are brown.” We were both so convinced that the other was crazy, that we started polling friends and family about my shoes. Turns out every other person in the world that we asked, and i mean EVERY ONE, thought that the shoes were brown. I swear to you, to this day, that those shoes were red. I will go to my grave one day believing that. In fact, maybe I’ll even asked to be buried in those red shoes.
But back to the game. Is rust brown or red? Like my shoes, I’m going to say red. If rust was brown, then i would say that the browns would rust up the steelers and win the game. But rust isn’t brown. And the Steelers will win, 31-24.
Conspiracy Theory of the Week
If you’ve known me for any length of time, you’ve probably heard me riff on this before, but for those of you who have avoided me to this point, let me clue you in on a huge conspiracy. This little charade is going on at a local pharmacy and grocery store near you every day, and no one is blowing the whistle on it until now.
It’s those freaking greeting cards.
Every time i pull a greeting card and read it, i can never figure out what slot i pulled it from. I mean, i think i know the general area that it came from, but i can never seem to find its siblings to put it back where it came from. This happens to everyone, right?
I honestly believe that if we had slow motion cameras with super-sensitive microphones it would all become clear. While we are reading the cards, one of the greeting cards (presumably the leader) yells out “Shift!” and they all rearrange themselves before we have finished reading. It’s no wonder we can never figure out where the card belongs.
Throw me in a mental institution if you want, but I firmly believe that that is happening, and I can’t be convinced otherwise.
If Betting were Legal
Last Week: 6-8
Year to Date: 66-64
This week I’ll be going head to head against the son of the Schnoz, my son Parker. I’ll be picking against the spread, he’ll be picking games straight up.
First, here’s my picks for Week 10 (your spreads may vary):
And here’s Parker’s picks for Week 10 (he picks all 14 games and his nose in less than 2 minutes):
Final Word
Any man who has already started Christmas shopping, what kind of a man are you?
Thanksgiving is still light years away and you’re already shopping for christmas gifts? Are you that bored that you have nothing better to do in early November than go christmas shopping? If you need something to do, come by my house and do some yard work on saturday. We’ve got a huge butterfly bush that needs to be cut down and some tall grassy shrubs that need to be trimmed.
Lose the credit card or you’re going to lose your man card, that’s all I’m saying.
Monday Reset is a weekly feature that obviously runs on mondays, but only if we have time to bother with it. It contains no references to the writer’s strike, no commentary on Ron Paul or Paul Ron, and no thoughts on NBC’s green peacock logo.
THE CARNAGE OF YESTERWEEK - making sense of the last seven days
Last week we saw…
…Joe Torre return to the National League with the L.A. Dodgers. Does he realize that the double switches are going to seriously cut into his in-game napping?
…The NBA Season kick off with the new look Boston Celtics grabbing most of the headlines…and 2 early wins.
…6 Top-25 Teams lost on saturday, although 4 of those losses were to higher ranked opponents. (#2)BC and (#18)South Florida lost to unranked teams, setting up Ohio St./LSU/Oregon as the 1-2-3 BCS teams headed into the home stretch.
…Darren McFadden ran for 323 321 yards for Arkansas on saturday. With the Rams and Dolphins headed for the first pick in the draft, will they select him to back up their own studs or trade the pick away?
…Adrian “All Day” Peterson goes for 296 in one day. (not sure that i’m down with calling him the “Purple Jesus” as some have decided to do. Mostly for the blasphemy aspect, but also because in this day and age I don’t think any athlete should get a nickname based on the team he is on. What happens if he signed with the Jaguars in 4 years, does he become the Teal Jesus?)
…Antonio Cromartie goes for 109 in one play. seems like a 110-yard play should be possible, but i guess they’re saying 109 is the most you can ever get.
…The Eagles and Bengals might be worse than we thought. The Saints, Bucs, Packers, and Lions win again. The Jets and 49ers couldn’t even win Bud Bowl right now.
…Tony Romo signs a 6-yr, $67.5 million dollar contract in the same week he is reportedly seen hanging out with Britney Spears. Take the money and run, Tony.
…The Patriots stun the Colts with a 4th quarter comeback to win 24-20. On the field, Reggie Wayne dropped a key pass late in the game, while Brady hit Moss and Stallworth on huge late strikes…The pass interference calls seemed a little lopsided to most impartial observers…According to Belicheck, the radio between Brady and the coaching staff wasn’t working for most of the game on Sunday…Also, here’s some interesting audio evidence of a possible fake crowd noise glitch (I remember hearing this during the game and wondering what it was).
THE BIG THREE - if you only watch three things this week, make it these:
1. Ravens @ Steelers, MON, 8:30pm (ESPN) - The Ravens look to extend their streak of “ugly” games to 41 in a row.
2. (18) Auburn @ (10) Georgia - SAT, 3:30pm (CBS) … cats and dogs fighting between shrubs.
3. Colts at Chargers - SUN, 800pm (NBC) … Can Joe Addai run for 297 against Ted Cottrell’s defense?
So, professional basketball is back. Some of you care. Many of you don’t.
Here at Prayers for Blowouts we see this as one more opportunity for us (and you) to show the world just how smart we are. We’ve compiled an elite panel of NBA experts that will offer their predictions on which teams will make the playoffs, and which team will win it all.
First let’s meet our panel:
Bryan Allain - As a 4th-grader, he celebrated the 1986 Boston Celtics Championship by marching around his block with a makeshift drum, screaming “We are the Champions!” These days he watches about 15 NBA regular season games and maybe the first round of the playoffs. Yes, he is an expert.
Jon Adams - The sports editor of the Burnside Writers Collective, Jon is a Toronto Raptors fan who loves hockey and gambling on American Gladiator reruns. You bet, he is an expert.
Chad Gibbs - A former janitor and frequent contributor to the Burnside Writer’s Collective, Chad claims to have shot a 73 this summer on the golf course, though he was not able to produce a signed and notarized scorecard when asked. He loves Auburn, but don’t hold that against him. Has he ever been called an NBA expert? Not until today.
Parker Allain - He’ll be 5 years old in December, and up until last week had never watched a minute of an NBA game in his life. He has a teddy bear named Freddy and he can say his ABCs (though he sometimes forgets T-U-V). He made his predictions based on which logos he liked better. Is he an expert? Sure, why not?
Let’s get to the predictions:
Eastern Conference Playoff Teams
Bryan - CHI, DET, BOS, WAS, ORL, CLE, NJ, TOR
Jon - CHI, TOR, BOS, CLE, WAS, MIA, DET, NJ
Chad - BOS, DET, MIA, CHI, NJ, IND, CHA, ATL
Parker - NJ, NYK, MIL, MIA, IND, DET, CHI, BOS
Western Conference Playoff Teams
Bryan - HOU, SA, DAL, DEN, UTA, PHX, POR, N.O.
Jon - SA, DAL, PHX, HOU, DEN, UTA, GS, LAL
Chad - PHX, UTA, NO, DAL, DEN, LAC, HOU, SA
Parker - POR, HOU, PHX, DEN, MEM, MIN, SA, SAC
NBA Finals
Bryan - Phoenix over Boston
Jon - Boston over Dallas
Chad - Phoenix over Boston
Parker - Chicago over Phoenix
We know you don’t care about the NBA, but we want your predictions anyway. Include them as a comment and at the end of the season we promise we’ll give props to whomever was the most psychic, whether it’s a panel expert or commenter.
Each week The Schnoz Report will get you ready for the upcoming slate of games in the NFL, providing angles (both acute and obtuse, but never right) that you won’t get anywhere else.
+ Jon Kitna’s 10-win prediction might not be so looney after all. Don’t get me wrong, they still have some tough opponents left on their schedule, but who would have thought this team would be 5-2 after 8 weeks? Not I.
+ The Eagles, Browns, Bills, and Saints are playing like they think they can make the playoffs, despite all having losing records (except the Browns at 4-3). As of right now, I think the only team of this bunch that will squeak in is the Saints, who are finally showing glimpses of last year.
+ How about that AFC South? Jacksonville and Tennessee both won on sunday to stay 2 games behind the Colts. The Colts, Jaguars, and Titans, rank #2, #4, and #7 in the league in fewest points per game this year. Tough division.
+ Speaking of the AFC, the top 5 defenses in the league in yards per game are all from the AFC: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, New England, Indianapolis, Tennessee.
+ My NFC playoff outlook right now: DAL, GB, NO, SEA, NYG, DET
+ In the AFC, the playoff prediction is: NE, IND, PIT, SD, JAX, TEN
Angle of the Week
You know a game is hitting a 10 out of 10 on the hype machine when the Cowboys are playing the Eagles in prime time on a Sunday night and you don’t hear a peep about it. Last night my father-in-law was telling me that he was going to the Eagles game this Sunday and my response was, “Oh, that’s THIS Sunday?” I couldn’t believe I hadn’t heard a word about it. But that’s how big this Colts-Pats match up is.
Not sure that this game can match the hype. And what hype it is. I’ve heard this game called all but one of the following in the last few days:
The Greatest Regular Season Matchup of the last 20 years.
It’s not very often that the defending Super Bowl champs are 6 point underdogs at home, nevermind the fact that they are 7-0. It just tells you how sold on the Patriots America is. Is it deserved? I guess we’ll find out sunday afternoon.
This has Nothing to Do with Football
Here’s 7 movies I’ve never watched from start to finish that usually make people mad when they hear I haven’t seen them:
Saving Private Ryan
Goodfellas
Fight Club
Memento
American Beauty
300
Batman Begins
Of those seven, are there any on the list that you think i should DEFINITELY watch or my life will be meaningless and devoid of value? Let me know.
Do you have your own list of movies that most people have seen but you haven’t? If so, I’d love to hear what they are.
Fantasy is the New Reality
Looking ahead to next year’s fantasy NFL drafts, what does the top 10 look like? A lot different than this year’s i bet. Here’s a quick mock draft i did in my head (though keep in mind i am awful at Fantasy)
LT
Adrian Peterson
Joe Addai
Tom Brady
Brian Westbrook
Marion Barber
Steven Jackson
Randy Moss
Larry Johnson
Shaun Alexander
Between the increase in passing scores this year and the ‘running back by committee’ approach many coaches are taking, don’t you get the feeling that we might have reached the tipping point with the “ALWAYS TAKE A RUNNING BACK IN THE FIRST ROUND” Rule.
No Ticket, No Problem
If your wife thinks the Sunday Ticket is the name of a George Strait album, here’s what you’ll be watching on sunday.
CBS - CBS has a doubleheader this week, so no HD broadcast for that Cincy@Buffalo tussle that so many of you are dying to see. You can expect about 130 promos for the pats-colts game during the early games, which include CIN@BUF, SD@MIN, JAX@NO, and DEN@DET.
Check out the map for the CBS late game. It’s a sea of red. Gus Johnson and Steve Tasker must be ticked off that they have to pay attention to the Houston/Oakland game.
FOX - The only game FOX is showing in the late time slot this week is SEA@CLE. Everything else they are broadcasting is at 1pm EST. (or is it EDT…or does anyone care?)
If you’d like to take a peak at the NFL coverage maps with your own eyes, be my guest.
Household Chore to Ignore
Each week I’ll be helping you find something around the house that you should feel guilty about not doing because you’re watching football.
This week let’s talk about organizing that one drawer in your house where everything goes to die. What’s in that drawer anyway? Pens, pencils, markers, dead batteries, live batteries, questionable batteries, screwdrivers, gum, phone adapters, decks of cards, pennies, chap sticks, scotch tape, expired coupons, allen wrenches, a solar calculator, broken watches, spare keys, stamps, and a superball.
Isn’t it about time to go through that thing and organize it?
No, it’s time for kickoff. Get your unorganized carcass back on the couch.
Upset Specials
Each week I’ll pick an underdog that i think can win its game outright.
Last Week’s pick: BUF over NYJ (WIN!)
Record for the Year: 5-3
This week I like the Jacksonville Jaguars to go into New Orleans and upset the suddenly hot Saints. And while we’re here, can everyone who pronounces Jaguars as “jag-wires” raise their hand? Ok, keep your hands up and go look in the mirror. Now say to yourself “I will never again say ‘jag-wire’ because it sounds dumb. I will say ‘jag-wahr’ because that is the proper pronunciation.” Thanks.
Mascot Wars
The best mascot matchup of the week:
Chargers @ Vikings - According to Norse legend, lightning strikes were the result of the Viking god Thor throwing his hammer (named Mjollnir) at giants. How on God’s green earth are the Vikings going to be able to play football with all those bolts of lightning running around on the field? Answer: they won’t. Chargers 41, Vikings 10.
Conspiracy Theory of the Week
This is a picture of me eating guinea pig in Ecuador with Cliff Young of Caedmon’s Call in 2004. It tasted pretty good, as far as i can recall. Like chicken, you ask? Yeah, kinda like chicken.
Why don’t we eat more guinea pig in the United States? I’m not really sure.
Is it because they remind us too much of hamsters? Maybe. Is it because we associate them with pigs? I don’t think so. Because we eat pigs. Lots of pigs. Is it because we think of them as pets? It’s possible I suppose.
My theory? That it’s a conspiracy. I can’t really get into it more than that, I’m sorry.
Will the Rockies stave off elimination? Will the Red Sox break out the swiffers?
Let’s make some pre-game post-game comments:
1. When the Rockies scored in the first inning, they knew they had a chance to win this one.
2. How about that one inning where Pedroia made all 3 outs?
3. Manny’s hits > Hawpe’s hits + Helton’s hits.
4. The Red Sox put up runs in more innings than the Rockies did
5. Not surpisingly, the Rockies used more pitchers than the Red Sox.
6. Also not surprisingly, the Red Sox saw more pitches than the Rockies.
7. Tulowitzki’s total bases > Lugo’s TB + Lowell’s TB
8. Double Double Toil and trouble, the Red Sox out-doubled the Rockies again.
9. Jon Lester gave up more runs than he had strikeouts.
10.Joe Buck impaling Tim McCarver in the temple with his microphone was fascinating, if only for the sound.
11. Amazingly, the second out recorded in both halves of the sixth inning was on fly balls to center field.
12. The Rockies will have more 2-out RBI than the Red Sox have HRs
13. The number of half innings in which 0 runs were scored will be less than 10.
14. The Rockies were running from the get-go, stealing more bases than the Red Sox.
15. Manny Ramirez’s helmet fell off his head while running the bases, tripping the runner behind him and causing Tim McCarver’s brain to explode out of his head.
16. The Rockies will leave more runners on base than the Red Sox have hits.
17. Aren’t back to back homers fun?
18. Can you believe the Patriots took the field in the 9th inning and outscored the Rockies 28-0?
19.The Red Sox walked more times and struck out more times than the Rockies.
Each week The Schnoz Report will get you ready for the upcoming slate of games in the NFL, providing angles (both acute and obtuse, but never right) that you won’t get anywhere else.
i was in a geeky numbers mood (it happens often), so i tried to figure out my odds on the future AFC and NFC Champions.
AFC
Patriots - 55%
Colts - 20%
Steelers - 10%
Chargers - 7%
Jaguars - 5%
Titans - 3%
NFC
Cowboys - 24%
Giants - 21%
Packers - 15%
Buccanneers - 10%
Redskins - 10%
Seahawks -10%
Saints, Bears - 3%
Lions, Panthers - 2%
as of right now, all other teams don’t have a chance
Angle(s) of the Week
Angle #1 - By now you’ve probably heard this, but no quarterback has ever beaten 31 different teams. (due mostly to the fact that the league only expanded to 32 teams in 2002). This weekend Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have the chance to do that when they try to beat the Panthers and Redskins, respectively. Manning has lost to the Panthers twice, while Brady has only lost once to the Skins. If something crazy would happen and neither team wins, Brett Favre could be the first QB to accomplish the feat with a win against the Chiefs next week.
Angle #2 - There’s two games happening in Week 8 between teams with identical records.
In Minnesota, the Eagles and Vikings will meet, each with identical 2-4 records. The winner of this game emerges with playoffs hope still alive, the loser emerges with a 2-5 record and an unsexy coach.
In San Fransisco, the 2-4 Saints will take on the 2-4 Niners with both teams going in opposite directions. The 49ers have lost 4 in a row and couldn’t even beat a red light the way they have been playing. The Saints have won 2 in a row after losing their first 4 and suddenly have aspirations of winning their crappy division.
This has Nothing to Do with Football
The dumbest thing about all of the “will the 8-day layoff hurt the Rockies?” hype was that there’s no way of knowing. There never was.
We all knew going in that if the Rockies won Game 1, we’d be saying that the layoff didn’t affect them. And predictably, when they lost Game 1 the analysts said that the layoff did play a role. (personally i think it had more to do with the command of Josh Beckett’s fastball and the inability for the Rockies pitchers to throw strikes.)
Next time a team has a big layoff, let’s lay off the speculation about if it will affect them. There’s no sense in arguing about something we’ll never know the answer to. If the team loses, we’ll say it did affect them. If the team wins, we’ll say it didn’t.
Fantasy is the New Reality
Here’s your fantasy news this week: Steven Jackson is back for the Rams, DeShawn Wynn is the starting RB for the Packers, Travis Henry will be a gametime decision on Monday night for the Broncos, Deshaun Foster said he is healthy enough to play against the Colts this week, and Frank Gore expects to play against the Saints this weekend.
In other news, i left an angry rant on my Burnside Fantasy League Message Board this week after getting beat by Tom Brady’s 6 TDs. I was angry because in this same league i was beaten by Carson Palmer’s 6 TDs in Week 2. Against my better judgement, here was most of the rant (with names blacked out to protect the innocent):
[Owner who beat me], i hate you and your brady gloating. i hate brady and his 6 TDs in Week 7. also, i hate Carson Palmer and his 6 TDs in Week 2 against me. I hate getting sucked out on the river by two QBs who threw up whack numbers against vomit defenses. i hate losing in week 2 by 25 points when Palmer scores 60 by himself. i hate losing in Week 7 by 13 points when Brady and his video camera installed on his helmet scores 58 by himself. i hate fantasy football and the flukiness of it’s asinine tomfoolery malaise whippersnapper pedigree madeupwords … whoever plays against me can expect their quarterback to have a career day. in fact, you might want to get a hold of your quarterback and tell him to bet on himself and play the lottery and ask out a hot chick because it will be his lucky day. he could probably even expect to get a check on that day from microsoft and aol on that day for spam emails that he forwarded as a part of some ridiculous email tracking beta test that doesnt even exist that he got tricked into, but just because he’s playing against my team, bill gates will wake up and say, “why not send a $43,800 check to eli manning today?”… not to mention some grocery store clerk named kevin walter playing WR for the texans scores 16 pts against me. how did he get 16 pts? was it for double bagging groceries the fastest? did he clean up a spilled jar of prego on aisle 6? did he boot someone out of the 10 items or less line because they had 12 items? ridiculous. i think i’m done now.
No Ticket, No Problem
If your wife thinks the Sunday Ticket was invented by Satan, here’s what you’ll be watching on sunday.
CBS - no HD for the 12 of you who were looking forward to watching Cleveland @ St. Louis. CBS is only broadcasting 1 game into your living room this week. If you live near IND@CAR, PIT@CIN, OAK@TEN, or CLE@StL you’ll get it at 1pm EST. The 4pm EST games on CBS are HOU@SD, BUF@NYJ, and JAX@TB.
FOX - FOX is double-dipping this week, with much of the country watching the MIA/NYG live from London at 1pm EST. In the late game slot on 90% of TVs will be WAS@NE.
Remember, no Sunday night game this week because of the World Series. Monday night will feature Brett Favre trying to beat someone his own age when he faces Broncos coach Mike Shanahan. (The San Diego game might also get moved to Monday Night, depending on what the NFL decides.)
If you’d like to take a peak at the NFL coverage map with your own baby blues, be my guest.
Household Chore to Ignore
Each week I’ll be helping you find something around the house that you should feel guilty about not doing because you’re watching football.
this week let’s think about that room you told your wife you’d paint 2 years ago. Still not painted, is it? You could paint it on sunday, maybe. Of course, then you’d need to go out and buy paint, buy some of that tape to cover stuff up, get some new brushes, and then block off a few hours of your day to get the first coat on. First coat, you ask? Oh yes, there will be at least two coats. Maybe 3 if it doesn’t look just right. There’s no way you’re getting that done all in one day. Perhaps another weekend would work out better? Yes, perhaps. Way to think things through, your wife would be proud!
Upset Specials
Each week I’ll pick an underdog that i think can win its game outright.
Last Week’s pick: TB over DET (LOSS!)
Record for the Year: 4-3
This week I’m picking the Bills to beat the Jets in a game the Jets are slightly favored in. Both of these teams are really bad, but it seems to me that the Bills are a better team. The crazy thing is, if Elam misses that kick in Week 1 and if the Cowboys don’t turn water into wine to win that Monday night game a few weeks ago, the Bills would be 4-2 right now instead of 2-4.
Mascot Wars
The best mascot matchup of the week:
Redskins @ Patriots - Isn’t this just a repeat of what happened back a few hundred years ago? We all know how that one turned out for the native americans who were already living here on the soil. If a Redskins victory here would somehow make amends for what the new settlers did, i might cheer for Washington, but this is merely a football game and i don’t think there are any native americans playing for the Redskins. I’m petitioning the league to cancel this game and instead host a huge thanksgiving dinner feast at the 50-yard line of Gillette Stadium. Strangely, I haven’t heard back from them yet.
Conspiracy Theory of the Week
Unlike most of my consipracy theories, this one is actually pretty legit. I’m pretty sure that the real Al Gore has been locked up in Area 51 since the mid-90s and that the Al Gore we’ve seen on TV since then is just a robot.
Ever since Al Gore invented the internet, people wondered which computer would be the central location, or the heart, of the internet. Sure, most of the internet lives on servers scattered throughout the world, but where is the core of it’s being? The answer: in Al Gore’s head.
He was kidnapped and cloned into a half-robot/half-human replica of himself. While the real Al Gore was cable-tied to a folding chair in Area 51 with fifty ethernet cables plugged into his scalp, the fake Al Gore ran for president. While the real Al Gore hasn’t moved a muscle in over 10 years, the fake Al Gore was programmed to research and create “An Inconvenient Truth”. While the real Al Gore grew a huge, bushy beard. The fake Al Gore grew a smaller, controlled beard.
Don’t feel bad for the real Al Gore, though. While he’ll never enjoy the taste of a filet mignon ever again, he has become the heart of the thing he created. He IS the internet. In fact, every time you send an email, it gives him a warm, fuzzy. So go send out some emails and make him happy. And if you see the fake Al Gore, just wink at him and say “I know who you are” under your breath.
Like I said, this theory isn’t much of a stretch, but it’s worth noting.
I talked to my brother Josh last night before Game 2 of the World Series. He lives in Boston and was lucky enough to go to Game 6 of the ALCS. Apparently a friend called him up yesterday with a ticket for the game last night but Josh was sleeping. By the time he woke up and called him back, he had found someone else to go with. Ouch. Reason #458 why i hate naps: You can miss out on World Series tickets.
Why is it that we like to make predictions for an upcoming sports season?
Those of us who are baseball fans all read the last book that came out in the series called “The 2007 MLB Season”. It was a great book. There were good guys, bad guys, plot twists, historic moments, mysterious events that changed the course of the book (remember those flying midges on Joba Chamberlain’s neck in Cleveland?), and of course, a big finish.
With that in mind, I give my predictions for how this book, “The 2008 MLB Season”, will play out. While I’m not a baseball expert, the reality is I’m not much different than Peter Gammons, Jayson Stark, Buster Olney, or Atreyu. They don’t know how this book will end any more than I do. And even though they know the previous books in the series a lot better than I do - seeing as how it’s what they do for a living - in the end we’re all just guessing.
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Clay Buchholz - With Schilling on the shelf, Clay looks like the man for that 5th spot in the rotation. He is projected to be a #1 starter someday, and with a MLB no-hitter already under his belt, it will be interesting to see if he can live up to some of that hype at the age of 23.
Has there ever been 1 person who bought a car based on a car commercial?
It’s those freaking greeting cards. 
Monday Reset is a weekly feature that obviously runs on mondays, but only if we have time to bother with it. It contains no references to the writer’s strike, no commentary on Ron Paul or Paul Ron, and no thoughts on NBC’s green peacock logo.
So, professional basketball is back. Some of you care. Many of you don’t.
This is a picture of me eating guinea pig in Ecuador with Cliff Young of Caedmon’s Call in 2004. It tasted pretty good, as far as i can recall. Like chicken, you ask? Yeah, kinda like chicken.
Will the Rockies stave off elimination? Will the Red Sox break out the swiffers?
9. Jon Lester gave up more runs than he had strikeouts.
Unlike most of my consipracy theories, this one is actually pretty legit. I’m pretty sure that the real Al Gore has been locked up in Area 51 since the mid-90s and that the Al Gore we’ve seen on TV since then is just a robot.
