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Why is it that we like to make predictions for an upcoming sports season?
To sound smart? To say “told you so” if our guesses turn out to be right? To convince ourselves that our team has what it takes? To me, making predictions is about hope. Not necessarily about the hope of an individual team, just the hope of a new season.
In my opinion, each new sports season is great because it’s like getting your hands on the newest book in your favorite series of books. Major League Baseball has been around for a while, so this year’s book has got to be Volume 158 or something like that. (I’ll let my editor do the research)
(editor’s note: I have no editor)
Those of us who are baseball fans all read the last book that came out in the series called “The 2007 MLB Season”. It was a great book. There were good guys, bad guys, plot twists, historic moments, mysterious events that changed the course of the book (remember those flying midges on Joba Chamberlain’s neck in Cleveland?), and of course, a big finish.
Not everyone loved the way the last book ended of course, but that’s the beauty of a new season. There will be new characters introduced to go along with the ones we love and love to hate (world, meet Evan Longoria), there will be pages of comedy, tragedy, and plenty of moments that inspire (like on Page 1 of this year’s book when Ryan Zimmerman hit a game winning homer in the Nationals brand new park). Inevitably there will be plot twists we never saw coming and ultimately there will be a big ending that maybe, just maybe, will be the one you are hoping for.
With that in mind, I give my predictions for how this book, “The 2008 MLB Season”, will play out. While I’m not a baseball expert, the reality is I’m not much different than Peter Gammons, Jayson Stark, Buster Olney, or Atreyu. They don’t know how this book will end any more than I do. And even though they know the previous books in the series a lot better than I do - seeing as how it’s what they do for a living - in the end we’re all just guessing.
OK, enough with the overworked analogies and Neverending Story pics…here’s how I think this will play out
13 Predictions for 2008
1. The Yankees will win the AL East - do I really think this is going to happen? I don’t know. I’m torn between the Sox and the Yankees. While I’m not sold on Girardi as the right manager for this team, I do think the pinstripers are going to have another monster season at the plate. Cano might win the batting title, Giambi is in a contract year, Matsui and Jeter will be as solid as ever, and A-Rod will probably put up MVP numbers again. Most folks think it will come down to their young arms, and I tend to agree. So I guess what I’m saying is that Joba, Phil, and Ian might all be the real deal.
2. The Mets will win the NL East - Without Santana I’d be picking the Phillies or Braves here, but Johan will be strong in September when they need him most.
3. The Diamondbacks and Angels win the Wests - I see the Rockies regressing, and I don’t see the Mariners living up to the hype. If the Big Unit (worst.nickname.ever.) can get healthy and give the D-Backs 12-15 quality starts, he’ll be a great compliment to Haren and Webb. Over in Seattle, I’m with the chorus of experts who think the M’s won’t score enough runs to keep pace with the Angels.
4. Ryan Howard will lead the NL in homers this year - rounding out the top 5 will be Ryan Braun, Adam Dunn, Alfonso Soriano, and Matt Holliday. In the AL it will be A-Rod, Manny, Carlos Pena, Miguel Cabrera. and Big Papi who make up the top 5.
5. The Cubs will win the NL Central - and it has nothing to do with the 100-year anniversary thing. I’d consider picking the Reds as a sleeper over the Brewers to keep it close, but my buddy Geof would probably kill me. This is the one pick that most experts seem to agree on, which is probably bad news for the Cubs.
6. The Houston Astros will finish in the bottom 3 of their division - I only add this to the list because Cliff Young and Jeff Miller of Caedmon’s Call were adamant with me last month that the Astros had a shot at winning their division. I think they’ve been smoking some of their 40 Acres.
7 - The worst record in baseball will belong to the Orioles - Not only are they bad, but the rest of the division is great. I’m not as high on the Blue Jays as many are, but I’m predicting the Orioles will fare no better than a 6-13 record against any of their division foes this year.
8. The Tigers will not win their division - But they will win the AL Wild Card. Their lineup is great, and so is Verlander. But Bonderman, Willis, Rogers, and Robertson? I’m not ready to write them in for 100 wins yet. I’m going with the Indians in the AL Central, but I think it’ going to be close. These two teams might finish 1-2 record-wise in the AL.
9. The Cy Young awards will go to Santana and Halladay - I like Roy and Johan to win 21 games each and walk away with some hardware. I was tempted to pick Kazmir in the AL, but his recent elbow issues scared me off.
10. The final playoff spots will be won by the Phillies and Tigers - the fightins’ will hold off the Dodgers and Braves for the Wild Card, and the Tigers will eliminate the Red Sox in the last week of the season.
11. The Yankees and Indians will meet in the ALCS - The Yankees will out-hit the Tigers and the Indians will out-everything the Angels to meet in the ALCS. Without the midges, I think the Yankees will come out on top.
12. The Diamondbacks and Cubs will face off in the NLCS - Unless the Mets can figure out how to clone Johan this summer, they will fall to the D-Backs in 6 games. Same goes for the Phillies, who will wish they had a few more Cole Hamels when they lose to the Cubs. I like the Cubs to take care of business in the NLCS, not because I think they have a better club than the D-Backs, but because I have no desire to see a Yankees-Diamondbacks matchup in the World Series.
13. The Yankees will beat the Cubs in the World Series - If you think this whole thing was me trying to jinx the Yankees, you’re crazy. (not that I would complain if that happened). I just think Jeter, Posada, and company have one more title run in them before they start to fade into Bolivian. I hope I’m wrong. Wicked wrong.
The World Series is over and the Boston Red Sox are your World Champions (although, my wife asked me last night why they called themselves the World Champions when they don’t play teams from outside North America and I didn’t have a good answer. It is a bit of a misnomer)
Though most people have already put the baseball season behind them, for the sake of closure we need to take a look at my pre-game predictions that i posted last night. I have a feeling I’m going to come out looking like a genius on this one.
1. When the Rockies scored in the first inning, they knew they had a chance to win this one. It was actually the Red Sox who plated a run in the first, and it seemed to happen in about 13 seconds. The Rockies never led in Game 4.
2. How about that one inning where Pedroia made all 3 outs? - Didn’t happen. Dustin made a handful of outs, but he scattered them throughout the game.
3. Manny’s hits > Hawpe’s hits + Helton’s hits. - Manny pulled an 0 for 4, Helton had 2 hits and Hawpe had the homerun. Wrong again.
4. The Red Sox put up runs in more innings than the Rockies did - The Red Sox scored a single run in 4 of 9 innings, with the Rockies only scoring in the 7th and 8th.
5. Not surpisingly, the Rockies used more pitchers than the Red Sox.- Not surprisingly, I’m wrong again. The Red Sox used 5 pitchers, Colorado only used 4.
6. Also not surprisingly, the Red Sox saw more pitches than the Rockies.- Also not surprisingly, I’m still wrong. The Red Sox hitters saw 112 pitches from the Rockies, while the Rockies saw 160 pitches.
7. Tulowitzki’s total bases > Lugo’s TB + Lowell’s TB- Wow. My endorsement is the kiss of death in these prediction pieces. Tulowitzki had zero total bases. Lugo had 1 on a single, Lowell had 6 on a double and homer. 0 is not greater than 7, unless you’re talking about your golf handicap.
8. Double Double Toil and trouble, the Red Sox out-doubled the Rockies again.- Each team had 2 doubles, the most important of which might have been Ellsbury’s to lead off the game.
9. Jon Lester gave up more runs than he had strikeouts.- Lester had 3 strikeouts and gave up no runs in 5 and 2/3 innings. He pitched a great game.
10.Joe Buck impaling Tim McCarver in the temple with his microphone was fascinating, if only for the sound.- Joe and Tim take a hefty beating from the sports writers online, maybe more than they deserve. McCarver does drive me crazy sometimes, but overall it was palatable.
11. Amazingly, the second out recorded in both halves of the sixth inning was on fly balls to center field.- i was half right. Ortiz grounded out to short and Helton lined out to left for the second outs in each of their sixth innings.
12. The Rockies will have more 2-out RBI than the Red Sox have HRs- It takes a lot of talent to be this consistently wrong. The Red Sox had 2 HRs while the Rockies scored all their runs with less than 2 outs.
13. The number of half innings in which 0 runs were scored will be less than 10.- Wrong. Zeroes were put up 12 times.
14. The Rockies were running from the get-go, stealing more bases than the Red Sox.- There were as many stolen bases in this one as there were streaking pigmen. Zero.
15. Manny Ramirez’s helmet fell off his head while running the bases, tripping the runner behind him and causing Tim McCarver’s brain to explode out of his head.- I think even Tim and Joe couldn’t get mad at Manny by the end of the series. Manny taking off his helmet while running to first base left them snickering and speechless.
16. The Rockies will leave more runners on base than the Red Sox have hits.- The Sox had 9 hits. The Rockies left 7 on base. I have 1 prediction right so far. Joe Buck would be disgusted with me.
17. Aren’t back to back homers fun?- They are, but there weren’t any in this game.
18. Can you believe the Patriots took the field in the 9th inning and outscored the Rockies 28-0?- It didn’t happen, but if it did, the Redskins would probably cry about that too. Listen, NFL players shouldn’t be complaining about teams running up the score. If you don’t want them to score again, stop them. It’s up to you. (and no, I’m not a Pats fan.)
19.The Red Sox walked more times and struck out more times than the Rockies.- These predictions I’ve made are historically bad. The Red Sox had 1 BB to the Rockies’ 3 and 4 Ks to the Rockies’ 7.
20. The Red Sox are your World Series Champions!- What do you know, I got the most important one right. I guess I did come out looking like a genius.
Enjoy your non-stop Yankees coverage on ESPN all week!
Will the Rockies stave off elimination? Will the Red Sox break out the swiffers?
Let’s make some pre-game post-game comments:
1. When the Rockies scored in the first inning, they knew they had a chance to win this one.
2. How about that one inning where Pedroia made all 3 outs?
3. Manny’s hits > Hawpe’s hits + Helton’s hits.
4. The Red Sox put up runs in more innings than the Rockies did
5. Not surpisingly, the Rockies used more pitchers than the Red Sox.
6. Also not surprisingly, the Red Sox saw more pitches than the Rockies.
7. Tulowitzki’s total bases > Lugo’s TB + Lowell’s TB
8. Double Double Toil and trouble, the Red Sox out-doubled the Rockies again.
9. Jon Lester gave up more runs than he had strikeouts.
10.Joe Buck impaling Tim McCarver in the temple with his microphone was fascinating, if only for the sound.
11. Amazingly, the second out recorded in both halves of the sixth inning was on fly balls to center field.
12. The Rockies will have more 2-out RBI than the Red Sox have HRs
13. The number of half innings in which 0 runs were scored will be less than 10.
14. The Rockies were running from the get-go, stealing more bases than the Red Sox.
15. Manny Ramirez’s helmet fell off his head while running the bases, tripping the runner behind him and causing Tim McCarver’s brain to explode out of his head.
16. The Rockies will leave more runners on base than the Red Sox have hits.
17. Aren’t back to back homers fun?
18. Can you believe the Patriots took the field in the 9th inning and outscored the Rockies 28-0?
19.The Red Sox walked more times and struck out more times than the Rockies.
1. Schilling’s line wasn’t bad…4 earned runs over 5 and 2/3 innings. - try 5 and 1/3 innings and only 1 earned run.
2. Who would have thought Brad Hawpe and Willy Tavares would combine for more hits than Kevin Youkilis and Manny Ramirez? - i was close. both tandems combined for 1 hit.
3. Manny’s helmet flew off his head again. Dude needs to switch to a L from that XL. - yeah, no surprise here. As he went first to third on Mike Lowell’s RBI double in the 5th, Manny lost his hat again.
4. Thank you Willy Tavares for earning me a free taco on October 30th with that stolen base in the 6th inning. - What i meant to say was, “Thank You Jacoby Ellsbury for getting me a taco with that SB in the 4th inning.”
5. Ubaldo Jimenez was throwing some laser beams, hitting 100 MPH on the gun more than once. - He was hitting the mid 90s consistently, but I didn’t see anything above 98 MPH.
6. Boston outhit Colorado for the second straight game. - barely, though. 6 hits for Boston, 5 for Colorado.
7. Jiminez not only struck out more batters than Schilling, he also walked less. Nice outing for the rookie. - Um, wrong and wrong. Ubaldo struck out 2 and walked 5. Schilling struck out 4 and walked 2.
8. That catch by Ellsbury was amazing. - No it wasnt. He did only have one catch, but it was routine.
9. The Red Sox laid down more bunts than the Rockies tonight. - Actually, i think it was 1 each. could be wrong about that one though.
10. Ellsbury stealing third caught everyone off guard…including me. - It caught Ellsbury off guard too, because he didn’t do it.
11. Big Papi’s home run almost landed in Colorado. - The one from batting practice. I guess i should have specified that.
12. Manny wasn’t really hustling on that play. - this one was true the moment i typed it. No references needed.
13. I never thought I’d see that day that Manny Corpas would walk out of the bullpen with no pants on. - and i still haven’t, thankfully.
14. Papelbon struck out more batters than he left on base. - 2 Ks and 0 LOB thanks to the pickoff that no one saw coming.
15. Can you believe John Kerry streaked naked onto the field like that? - funny thing was, first he ran out there, then he came back to his seat, then he ran out there again. Poor guy just couldn’t make up his mind.
16.Matt Holliday busted for using a corked bat? Who would have thought. - dude went 4-4, but i just missed this one. The bat WAS corked, he just didn’t get busted for it. (i kid, of course).
17. J.D. Drew’s Strikeouts + Mike Lowell’s Walks = Torrealba’s base hits + Helton’s doubles - Lowell’s lone walk was the only non-zero in this equation. 1 = 0? not today it doesn’t.
18. Varitek hit for the cycle! amazing! - Only if we redefine “the cycle” as: Strike out looking, strike out swinging, fly out to Left Field, and a Sac fly to Center.
19. Garret Atkins should be suspended for all of next year for tripping Pedroia as he rounded third. He should be suspended for 5 years after that for pulling out a tazer and tazing Dustin multiple times in the small of his back. - Don’t taze me bro!
20. The team with the most runs won the game. - I hit this one right on the head! When you’re good, you’re good.
If I’m feeling Nostradamic this weekend, maybe we’ll do this for Game 3 or 4.
We’re about an hour from the first pitch in Game 2 of the World Series, which means that by the time you read this post, the game will probably be over. So how was it for you?
Instead of providing you with predictions and insight that will be obsolete in 4 hours, I’m going to make 20 post-game statements before the game even starts. We’ll see how many of these I can nail perfectly.
Pre-Game Post Game Thoughts on Game 2:
1. Schilling’s line wasn’t bad…4 earned runs over 5 and 2/3 innings.
2. Who would have thought Brad Hawpe and Willy Tavares would combine for more hits than Kevin Youkilis and Manny Ramirez?
3. Manny’s helmet flew off his head again. Dude needs to switch to a L from that XL.
4. Thank you Willy Tavares for earning me a free taco on October 30th with that stolen base in the 6th inning.
5. Ubaldo Jimenez was throwing some laser beams, hitting 100 MPH on the gun more than once.
6. Boston outhit Colorado for the second straight game.
7. Jiminez not only struck out more batters than Schilling, he also walked less. Nice outing for the rookie.
8. That catch by Ellsbury was amazing.
9. The Red Sox laid down more bunts than the Rockies tonight.
10. Ellsbury stealing third caught everyone off guard…including me.
11. Big Papi’s home run almost landed in Colorado.
12. Manny wasn’t really hustling on that play.
13. I never thought I’d see that day that Manny Corpas would walk out of the bullpen with no pants on.
14. Papelbon struck out more batters than he left on base.
15. Can you believe John Kerry streaked naked onto the field like that?
16. Matt Holliday busted for using a corked bat? Who would have thought.
17. J.D. Drew’s Strikeouts + Mike Lowell’s Walks = Torrealba’s base hits + Helton’s doubles
18. Varitek hit for the cycle! amazing!
19. Garret Atkins should be suspended for all of next year for tripping Pedroia as he rounded third. He should be suspended for 5 years after that for pulling out a tazer and tazing Dustin multiple times in the small of his back.
Via ESPN.com, here’s Paul Byrd responding to the San Francisco Chronicle’s report that he purchased almost $25,000 worth of HGH from 2002 to 2005.
here’s essentially what Byrd says in the video:
“I have never taken any hormone or any drug that was not prescribed to me by a doctor. I was prescribed a hormone, I did inject it, and I did have the temptation to take more of it that what was prescribed so that my fastball would reach into the 90s on a consistent basis. I never succumbed to any of those temptations, I never took any more than what was prescribed me. I didn’t start to throw the ball a lot harder…I was taking it for my well-being and for general life circumstances that were made known to me…I have never done anything that has disrespected the game…I don’t want to show up at a stadium and have people think I cheated…I’m one game away from the World Series and now I’m dealing with my medical history.”
ESPN’s Buster Olney, who refers to Byrd as “…a very religious guy, a very thoughtful guy…” says that there are still some lingering questions raised by the SF Chronicle story, such as:
+ If this use of HGH is approved, why did he stop taking it?
+ Why did one of the prescriptions come from a dentist?
+ How much does he think HGH helped him as a pitcher?
+ Were there other alternative treatments for the sleeplessness and adult growth hormone deficiency than HGH, something that has been linked to performance enhancing drugs?
I really don’t think this is much of a story anymore, but I wanted to put Paul Byrd’s response out there for everyone to see. Even if Byrd had used the HGH to come back from injury, it was before baseball had banned it, so it falls into a huge gray area.
Because Byrd appears to have legitimate reasons for taking HGH, and because he stopped taking them before they were banned, and because his stuff as a pitcher never drastically changed, I don’t see anything more happening with this story. Did the HGH help him recover from the injuries that he sustained over the time frame he was taking HGH? Probably, but we don’t really know.
I’ll track the story in case anything else happens, but I think we can move on…
“Religion can go over into every area, like whether I should cheat out on the field. I write about the desire to just make money at any cost. I share about my temptation to spit on the ball, put KY jelly on it or scuff it, to win more games and make more money. That’s a big temptation for me, being a guy who throws 82, who relies on movement. You have a pull, because you have a certain window up here that stares you in the face. Are you willing to take steroids? Because that’s available. People viewed that as me being weak. Like, ‘This guy doesn’t want to win.’”
According to Lance Williams and Mark Fainaru-Wada, the writers who penned the SF Chronicle piece, “Byrd has never commented on athletes’ use of growth hormone, but he has publicly denied using steroids and said he believes they pose a problem for baseball. He also has said baseball’s problem with performance-enhancing drugs is not nearly as serious as critics say.”
As the story develops we’ll have more to say about it, but for now here’s my initial thoughts (I’m headed out the door for the day):
Paul Byrd screwed up. He joins the list of Christians that have screwed up that includes, well, EVERY Christian. This will be tough for him to deal with, but from I read in the ESPN.com interview, he should be able to get through it.Even if HGH wasn’t banned at the time, I don’t think it was right for him to be using it. But that’s something we’ll get into further as the story progresses.
I have compassion for him, while still thinking that he did something he shouldn’t have.If you’ve been in a spot like Paul is, where you’ve screwed up and folks are finding out about it, perhaps you can say a prayer for him that something good comes out of it all. If you want to pile on him, you are free to do that to i suppose.More on this as the story develops
I gave my wife the night off yesterday, carting both the kids over to Kylie’s soccer practice. While Kylie dribbled around cones and played with her ponytail, Parker and I were 50 yards away playing baseball with the tennis balls and bat that we brought. As we were playing, a spastic 8-yr old kid came over and asked if he could play. I was annoyed at first, but decided the right thing to do was say “yes” and so i did.
He said his name was Eddie, and then he told me where we were all going to be positioned and what our roles would be (he was going to be the batter). I politely made it clear to Eddie that i was making the rules because i was here to play baseball with my son, so if he wanted to play, he would have to listen to me. Eddie seemed cool with that, and so we played on.
Five minutes later a 10-yr old kid wandered over with his dad, who was still dressed in his business casual work clothes. They had a soccer ball with them and they were kicking it around together. I could tell that neither was really athletic or coordinated, but i thought it was cool that they were goofing off like dads should with their kids. A few minutes later, the dad retreated to his chair by the soccer field and the boy, named Kyle, asked if he could play baseball with us. Why not? The more the merrier.
I let all the kids take turns batting and being the catcher. Parker was the best at hitting and throwing, which i took some sense of pride in, even though it’s probably a dumb thing to be proud about. (He is only 4 though). When it was Kyle’s turn to bat, it was pretty obvious that he didn’t have any experience playing baseball. He told me sheepishly that he wasn’t very good at baseball, and i told him it was okay, that i wasn’t very good either, which seemed to give him a sliver of his confidence back.
After a few hopeless flails, I adjusted his grip, stance, and posture and to his delight he began to foul pitches off. (Hey, sometimes you have to set the bar low, right?) When he finally hit one in the right direction, he was beaming with pride. He looked over at his dad, who was 50 yards away and out of earshot, and said, “I wish my dad could have seen that.”
I continued to help Kyle adjust his swing, and he actually had a few hits that flew by me in the air. “Wow, look at you!” I said, “Great hit.” I was feeling pretty good about myself. Look at me, the baseball coach! Moments later as i walked by him to retrieve a few of the balls he had missed he said to me, “You’re cool. I wish YOU were my dad.”
Ew. That kinda made me feel gross. Thankfully, his dad didn’t hear the comment, but man, if i had heard one of my kids say something like that to another guy, it would break my heart. I mean, all it took for this kid to disown his father was 3 minutes of one on one baseball instruction? Yikes.
Before Kyle ran over to his dad to tell him how well he had it, i tried to redeem the moment as best i could. “I might be cool to have as a friend,” i told the kid, “but your dad is the best person in the world to be your dad.” Not sure if he bought it or not, but it was all i had.
As we drove home i thought about the exchange and it reinforced my desire to be a great dad. I never want that thought to run through my kids’ heads. I want to do everything i can to be the best dad in the world to them, and i want them to know it in their hearts without even having to think about it. That way if someone else’ dad ever spends a couple minutes correcting their batting stance or offering them praise for a job well done, they’ll think to themselves, “this guy’s cool, but he’s not as cool as MY dad.”
Hey, sometimes you need to set the bar high, right?
Why is it that we like to make predictions for an upcoming sports season?
Those of us who are baseball fans all read the last book that came out in the series called “The 2007 MLB Season”. It was a great book. There were good guys, bad guys, plot twists, historic moments, mysterious events that changed the course of the book (remember those flying midges on Joba Chamberlain’s neck in Cleveland?), and of course, a big finish.
With that in mind, I give my predictions for how this book, “The 2008 MLB Season”, will play out. While I’m not a baseball expert, the reality is I’m not much different than Peter Gammons, Jayson Stark, Buster Olney, or Atreyu. They don’t know how this book will end any more than I do. And even though they know the previous books in the series a lot better than I do - seeing as how it’s what they do for a living - in the end we’re all just guessing.
The World Series is over and the Boston Red Sox are your World Champions (although, my wife asked me last night why they called themselves the World Champions when they don’t play teams from outside North America and I didn’t have a good answer. It is a bit of a misnomer)
9. Jon Lester gave up more runs than he had strikeouts.- Lester had 3 strikeouts and gave up no runs in 5 and 2/3 innings. He pitched a great game.
Will the Rockies stave off elimination? Will the Red Sox break out the swiffers?
I made 20 Post-Game comments before Game 2 started last night.
We’re about an hour from the first pitch in Game 2 of the World Series, which means that by the time you read this post, the game will probably be over. So how was it for you?
It was 4 days ago that 
I gave my wife the night off yesterday, carting both the kids over to Kylie’s soccer practice. While Kylie dribbled around cones and played with her ponytail, Parker and I were 50 yards away playing baseball with the tennis balls and bat that we brought. As we were playing, a spastic 8-yr old kid came over and asked if he could play. I was annoyed at first, but decided the right thing to do was say “yes” and so i did.
