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Posts Tagged ‘statistics’

The Most Important Statistic

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I’ve been hearing a lot lately about “the most important statistic” of the various sports we all watch. I’ve heard it on the radio (Mike & Mike), I’ve heard it on TV (FOX MLB Broadcast), and I’ve even seen it in print (somewhere…trust me).

In baseball, apparently the most important statistic is Batting Average with 2 Outs and Runners in Scoring Position. Most recent proof: Through their first 8 post-season games this year, the Indians have a .383 BA in these situations, while holding their opponents to a .136 average in that scenario. So yeah, it seems to be working out well for them.

In football, I’ve heard time and again that the most telling statistic in determining how a teams fares is Turnover Differential. Most recent proof: The league’s 2 undefeated teams, the Pats and the Colts, lead the league with a (+7) turnover differential. The Rams, on the other hand, have a league-worst (-8) differential to go along with their 0-6 record. Again, it seems that this stat does a good job in predicting success.

But let me submit to you a statistic that i feel trumps them all. Not only does it work in football and baseball, but it also works in hockey, soccer, and basketball too. How accurate is it? How about 100% accurate? It never fails to predict the winner.

What is it, you ask? It’s Points scored. You might not believe this but look it up and see for yourself. For as long as records have been kept, the team that scores more points than the other teams always wins. Every single time.

We can try to create obscure measurements to predict success, but in the end the only thing that matters is scoring more than your opponent. Everything else is just a symptom of winning, not the cause.

So the next time someone tries to tell you that basketball games hinge on 4th quarter free throw percentages or Player Efficiency Ratings, whip out “The team who scores the most points wins 100% of the time” and blow their minds.

The most important statistic has always been, and always will be, the score.


October 17th, 2007 |

Tags: statistics




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